By Ryan Bramwell
26-year-old Johnny Cueto has emerged as one of baseball's premeir pitchers. Cueto has recently put a string of five consecutive wins together from the mound, tying his career high. After today's win over the Padres, Cueto picked up his MLB-leading 14th victory. He also tied a season high in strikeouts with nine to put his season's total at 115 K's. He has only walked 35 batters on the year to boot.
Standing at only 5'10", Johnny is not an intimidating spectacle on the mound like other guys. In fact, when he was still a young man in the Dominican, Johnny wasn't even interested in being a pitcher. He was a converted position player later on and all us Reds fans are thankful for that. Very thankful. When Edinson Volquez came over from Texas in the Josh Hamilton deal he seemed like the real deal. He was an All-Star the following season and won 17 games for the Reds. When Cueto arrived, we all figured he would just be a smaller, less impressive version of Volquez. I remember Johnny's first start in '08 when he struck out ten batters and it seemed as though the Reds had put together quite a tandem with the two Dominican boys. Then Volquez fell apart, got injured, came back from Tommy John surgery, and continued to look awful. He could not find the plate. This is still the case for Volquez in San Diego. He pitches in the game's most friendly park for pitchers and he still has to throw a ton of pitches every start. And that is where I will make my first major point for Johnny Cueto and the 2012 Cy Young Award; the ballpark factor.
Cueto and the rest of the unlucky pitching staff for the Reds are priveledged with throwing in the major's top home run hitting stadium, Great American Ballpark. And when you consider just how wonderfully the entire staff has faced this adversity and put together the third best team ERA in all of baseball, it is a truly special feat indeed. But then you take a look at home and away split stats for hurlers like Homer Bailey, and you can see how no pitcher would like to make half his starts in GABP. Bailey is 9-6 with a 3.85 ERA to go along with 15 quality starts. That is a rate of 71% of his starts. But here is where you can make a prime example of the ballpark factor. For Bailey, home ain't where the wins are, but on the road. Away from Cincinnati, Bailey is 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA. He has given up 21 less hits and has a batting average against of .227. Not to mention, Homer has given up only four home runs in his 68.1 innings pitched away from GABP. Now let's take a look at Homer on the mound at Great American: 62.2 IP, 3-4, 5.17 ERA, .309 BAA, 14 HR allowed. A dramatic shift, wouldn't you say? Now, Bailey is still young at 26, and he's already been in the league since '07. That in itself, is incredible really. He didn't begin seeing regular rotation innings until '09, but nevertheless, Homer is a year away from being a veteran. What I am trying to get at is Homer is having the best season of his career and if all his games were played away from Cincinnati, then he too might be a Cy Young Candidate. Moreover, I am stating that there is major disadvantage to pitching in GABP compared to nearly every other ballpark in the land. This sets me up for the comparison to Johnny Cueto. Johnny is the same age as Homer and is in his fifth year of service in the majors. He pitched 174 innings in his debut season and gave up 29 homers in 31 starts. Johnny gave up two home runs today to bring his season total to seven allowed in 146.2 innings. That is quite a difference, huh? Here's a snippet from ESPN's game-recap:
"Cueto (14-5) gave up a home run for the first time in more than two months...the first home run allowed by Cueto in 80 innings -- the longest stretch in the majors this season -- over 11 starts since Colorado's Todd Helton homered on May 25 in Cincinnati. The homer was the first by a right-hander allowed by Cueto since Washington's Ryan Zimmerman hit one on Aug. 17, 2011, a span of 169 innings."
The first home run off Cueto by a right-hander in 169 innings? Yeah, that is historic if you ask me. 169 innings is all that a majority of starters throw in a full season. And just so you don't think it's a fluke, here are last years stats for Cueto: 156 IP, 9-5, 2.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and only 8 HR allowed. He is continuing right where he left off last season. Johnny's current stat line goes something like this: 146.2 IP, 14-5, 2.52 ERA, 115/35 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP. He has 16 quality starts which is 76% of them.
Cueto's Rankings - Among NL Pitchers W/ 120+ IP
WAR: 4.5 (1st)
Wins: 14 (1st)
ERA: 2.52 (4th)
Starts: 22 (1st)
IP: 146.2 (2nd)
ER: 41 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.21 (19th)
CG: 2 (2nd)
QS: 16 (4th)
HR: 7 (2nd)
When you consider the fact that Cueto has had one of the lowest ERA's in the National League for nearly two seasons while pitching in a pitcher-hating ballpark like Great American, it is pretty darned amazing. I think the committee will be thoughtful enough to take this into consideration when looking at the league's Cy Young candidates. Then when you consider the fact he was snubbed from the All-Star game, I think he may get a little extra love because of that too. In the end, all that matters is he plays for us. And we appreciate the hard work and dedication he has put into becoming a elite force on the mound. Johnny Cueto is certainly a contender for this year's Cy Young Award. What do you think?
Cueto Strikes Out Nine Padres - 08/02/12
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