What Changes Would You Consider?

The Lineup?  The Rotation?  A Trade?  What Changes Need To Take Place?

By Ryan Bramwell
Inconsistency.  That would be one way to describe the 2012 Reds.  We get hot.  We get cold.  We win six in a row.  We respond by losing four or five in a row.  The goal at the beginning of the season was first, and foremost, to win the division.  A larger goal was be established once the aforementioned feat was accomplished (i.e. Reaching The Fall Classic).  The Cincinnati ballclub has met most expectations this year by winning series'.  They have taken two-of-three or better in most occasions which has led to a winning record.  Injuries within the Cardinals' organization and underwhelming performances by the Brewers helped Cincinnati propel itself to the top of the division and stay there for the better part of the first half of the season.  Most analysts expected a tight race and predicted the Cards, Reds, and Brew Crew to be the favorites in the division.  It is safe to say that none of those analysts predicted that the swashbuckling Pirates would be two games up in the Central divison just before the All-Star break.  But they did predict a tight race, and that is what we've got. 

So what do the Reds need to do to regain their rightful position at the top of the division?  What moves need to be made?  Can we make moves from within the clubhouse and make subtle changes to turn things in the right direction?  Or will Walt Jocketty and company be willing to spend a few dollars to fill some voids to make a statement that Cincy is in it for the long haul? 

Rotation/Bullpen
In the offseason, it was clear to fans that the front office was committed to winning now by acquiring Sean Marshall, Ryan Madson, and Mat Latos. We never got to see Madson throw a pitch in a Reds uniform and most likely never will, as he was signed to a one-year deal and it out for the season.  Yet, the Reds' bullpen has statistically sustained all year that they have the best relief squad in the National League.  Nick Masset, one of the club's best set-up men, has been out all season and is nearing his return.  Who do we send down when he is ready to make his debut?  We finally got lefty Bill Bray back from the DL and he has certainly been a disaster thus far.  Promising rookie J.J. Hoover was sent down to allow room for Bray.  We've had the continuing conundrum of the role of Aroldis Chapman amidst all this.  Personally, I believe Chapman should be used whenever we need him the most, not just closing out games.  Crucial situations come more often in the 7th and 8th innings than they do in the 9th.  And by moving Chapman to the closer role he has reverted to throwing mainly fastballs and not improving the other pitches in his repertoire.  He has maybe the deadliest slider since the heyday of Randy Johnson.  If Chapman cannot work on using his other pitches, how do we expect him to be ready to be starter next season? Ondrusek, Marshall, LeCure and Arredondo are all capable of holding a lead in the ninth inning.  I am a proponent of the "closer by committee" situation.  Whoever will get the job done at that particular time is who should be closing out the ballgame.  The closer is the most overrated and over exaggerated position in the game. 

As far as the rotation is concerned, I am perfectly happy with what we have.  Cueto is an ace at 26 years old.  Latos, 24 years old, has bounced back into what we expected him to be.  He is a strikeout machine that can go the distance when he is on his game.  And it wasn't until recently that he found his game and became a force on the mound for the Reds.  Leake started out 0-7 with an ERA in the stratosphere, hovering around 7.70.  He has fine-tuned his mechanics, collected himself on the mound, and pitched beautifully over his last 10 starts.  His ERA has dropped down to a very respectable 4.01.  Bailey has been the most erratic of the starters.  He throws a gem, then a dud.  However, he still has a decent ERA of 4.24.  Then there is the only starter over the age of 26, Bronson Arroyo. The old man has redeemed himself from last year when he battled mono and minor, nagging injuries all season long.  He is back to form and has already flirted with a no-hitter this year.  He is the Reds workhorse and piles up innings season after season.

The Lineup/Bench

Manager Dusty Baker and I do not see eye-to-eye when it comes to the batting order, the use of bench players, and who gets starts at positions on a daily basis.  And I know I am not the only one who feels this way.  The top of the order has been consistently poor for a long time now.  Drew Stubbs is a great talent, but his OBP suggests otherwise.  He's fast on the basepaths and above-average fielder in center.  But he is once again on pace to strike out over 200 times this season.  If Drew could learn to keep the ball down, he would surely get more infield hits because of his speed alone.  He has power and he wants to show it too often.  Therefore, he is not a good situational hitter and should not be in the top half of the lineup.  Zack Cozart is a rookie.  He is good.  He will continue to get better.  But like Stubbs, he tends get overzealous at the plate and his average dips.  Cozart is a tremendous fielder already and forms a great combo with Brandon Phillips in the middle infield.  Zack will continue to improve and I feel he should be our everyday shortstop, like he is now.  Thank goodness for that, because I think we had enough of the Orlando Cabrera's, Alex Gonzalez's, etc. at that position.  When Ryan Hanigan is in the lineup, he should be batting second in the lineup until Stubbs/Cozart can show the patience they need to be a substantial padding for Joey Votto in the third spot.  I don't have an issue with Phillips batting cleanup behind Votto, but I don't feel he strikes fear into the minds of pitchers like a 4-hole hitter should.  More on that later.  Left field and third base are the biggest question marks.  The Ludwick/Heisey tandem/platoon has been better of late, I'll admit.  But only because they have both brought up their batting averages lately and are both above-average fielders.  Still, though, a trade here could possibly benefit the Reds.  Third base is where I have my strongest opinion.  Scott Rolen is a treasure.  He is super nice guy, a multiple gold glove winner, and has hit over 300 homers in his career.  And up until this season, we could always count on him to work the count and get a good at-bat whether he got on base or not.  Sometimes that alone is worth keeping him in the lineup.  He's 37 years old and not getting any younger.  He can still play the hot corner like nobody else in the business.  But right now can you say he deserves to start more often than Todd Frazier?  Todd has worked and earned his way into that spot and is a great bat to have in the 5-6-7 spot in the lineup.  He isn't Scott Rolen, I get that.  But he is young and is having a better rookie season than the highly-touted Bryce Harper in Washington. It's a fact.  Luckily, Frazier can also play left field, which allows for him to get into the lineup even when Dusty insists on playing the currently woeful Rolen at third.  The bench has been much weaker this year than in the past.  Miguel Cairo, also 37, isn't having the season he's had the past two seasons with the club.  Wilson Valdez has had a few good games, but Dusty will always bat him near the top of the lineup, which is preposterous.  Then we call up guys like Mike Costanzo and Kris Negron, who are nowhere near ready for the bigs, let alone a competing team like the Reds. With all this in mind, post what you feel is the best lineup/defensive layout for the Redlegs.

Trades and Rumors

I check all the rumor mills everyday and will continue to do so until I see something happen.  The Reds have been linked to guys like San Diego's Carlos Quentin.  Quentin was injured during the first portion of the season and has came back with a vengeance.  I would love to have him starting in LF for the Reds and batting cleanup behind Votto.  That could be a serious move that puts us over the top offensively.  The Reds just dealt with the Padres in the offseason, dealing Grandal, Alonso and Volquez for Mat Latos.  This is important because that means the owners already have a trust in one another as the deal as worked out well for both squads.  On the other hand, we gave them our top farm system talents already to get Latos.  Do we have enough left on the farm to deal for Quentin?  And would we be willing to do that? Quentin is in the last year of his contract and might end up being a rental if we do acquire him.  So, again, it may be too big of a gamble.

Another possible get is the Twins Josh Willingham.  Another left fielder that could be an everyday guy that provides some offense as well.  Willingham was reported to have said that would like to play for Cincinnati if given the opportunity.  That was reported last season.  Willingham would most likely come cheaper than Quentin, but you never know.

I will continue to check the rumor wire and post what I hear.  Let me know who you think we should try and lure in.  Let's weigh our options and see what we come up with, shall we?