Friday, July 13, 2012

Trade Deadline Approaching: More Players Drawing Interest From Reds

By Ryan Bramwell

John Fay and other sources have reported a slew of new options outside of who we have already detailed earlier in the week. Apparently the Reds might have interest in the following the outfielders:

-Mark Kotsay - .292/.370/.375 - L/L - 36 Yrs Old - Currently with the Padres
-Denard Span - .270/.334/.375 - L/L - 28 Yrs Old - Currently with the Twins
-Ryan Sweeney - .283/.319./.400 - L/L - 27 Yrs Old - Currently with the Red Sox
-Daniel Nava - .275/.388/.427 - S/L - 29 Yrs Old - Currently with the Red Sox
-Juan Pierre - .307/.344/.378 - L/L - 34 Yrs Old - Currently with the Phillies
-David DeJesus - .271/.359/.387 - L/L - 32 Yrs Old - Currently with the Cubs
-Coco Crisp - .236/.299/.318 - S/R - 32 Yrs Old - Currently with the Athletics

Nobody above makes you tingle with excitement, but these guys are all having decent years in the area where the Reds are lacking, OBP.  With the exception of Sweeney, all of these guys are currently getting on base at a rate of .334 or higher. 

Let us not forget that the Reds have not pulled out of the market on the bigger names just yet either.  Shane Victorino and Carlos Quentin are still possibilities for Cincinnati if they decide to go 'all-out' on an outfield bat.  I have heard some rumors of the Reds goiug after another starting pitcher, but I have a hard time buying that.  We've had tremendous statistics from our rotation this year.  Good enough to have the fourth best ERA in all of baseball.  And we have been one of the most fortunate teams I can ever remember, Reds or otherwise, in the fact that we have only used five starters the entire season!  That is unheard of these days.  And that is perhaps why I can buy the rumor that we will go after another starter.  Not because there is anything faulty with our current unit, but because the law of averages and dumb luck typically rear their head at some point in the season.  And unless Nick Masset comes back ready to perform and the Reds decide to make a sudden change of plans and move Chapman to the back of the rotation, I don't think it is a terrible idea to go ahead and grab a number four or five starter before the deadline...if he's inexpensive.

And what are we to do with our current outfield situation?  Ludwick is suddenly hitting the ball and looking like a decent ballplayer again.  Heisey hasn't had the power he's shown in the past but he is still producing in terms of average, and he runs out of every ground ball like it's the last out of the game.  I like a hustler on my team.  Both left-fielders are above-average on defense and neither is a liability in the field.  Bruce is still young and will produce big numbers as he continues to mature.  His defense seems to be pretty shoddy at the moment (dropping two fly balls on the west coast trip, for instance), but he still has a cannon for an arm that typically makes baserunners think twice before going that extra 90 feet. 

So that leaves Drew.  Unfortunately Stubbs hasn't gotten better since last season, or even remained the same for that matter.  He's gotten worse, statistically.  I really, really like Drew Stubbs and want him to be in the Reds' starting lineup.  But right now he is woeful.  .215/.286/.367, that is his slash line.  His on-base percentage is .286 and he is batting in front of the best hitter in baseball.  Wouldn't you like to see someone who gets on base more frequently in front of Joey?  Votto would see a lot more hittable pitches and his numbers would climb even higher than they are now, as impossible as that may seem.  But of course, the cleanup spot plays a big role in what pitches get thrown to Joey as well.  I'm not dissatisfied with Brandon Phillips as our cleanup hitter, but I sure would love to see a real power hitter there.  Honestly, though, BP has proven that he can fill the cleanup spot quite well.  Ok, back to Drew Stubbs.  Stubbs' best season was his sophomore season (really his rookie season when you consider games played and total at-bats) in 2010, when he went .255/.329/.444.  He had 22 homers, 77 RBI, and 30 stolen bases.  What a first, full season it was!  Yeah, his OBP was still underpar for what you want your leadoff or two-hole hitter to have, but the power and the speed he produced easily made you overlook the shortcoming of getting on base. In 2011, Stubbs got 90 more ABs than in 2010.  His production dropped as he would go through short periods of streaks and long periods of droughts.  Drew struck out nearly 40 more times (205) than the previous year.  His OBP dropped slightly to .321, but his power numbers were down considerably (15 HRs, 44 RBI).  The only number that went up for Drew (other than strikeouts) was his stolen base total (40).  This season, he is on pace for 17-20 homers, 35-40 RBI, and 30-35 SBs.  But miraculously, his strikeout total may be between 135-150 (which would his be lowest total in a full season).  He still doesn't draw many walks.  So what does that say?  If he isn't striking out as much, isn't taking many walks, and his OBP is still low, then what can that mean?  Well, bad luck mainly.  It means he is putting the ball in play but still not reaching base.  So, despite having the worst numbers of his short career so far, Drew might just be able attribute some (not all) of it to plain ol' bad luck.  Maybe it's just that his line drives are staying up too long, his grounders aren't finding holes, etc, etc.  We will soon find out what the fate of our Texas born centerfielder is soon enough.  In my opinion, he should be switched with Ryan Hanigan in the order (when he is the starting catcher), at least until we find a more suitable answer.  Or allow Heisey to bat second in the lineup continuously for a stint.  Either way, move Drew down to the seventh or eighth spot until he gets back into a groove and gains some confidence. 

What are your thoughts?  Trade for another centerfielder and label Stubbs as our 10th man, perhaps?  Just move Stubbs down in the order and hope his luck and numbers improve?  Obtain a power bat and make real lineup changes?

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