Thursday, July 12, 2012

WAR!: What is it Good For? ...well, a lot in terms of baseball statistics

By Ryan Bramwell

Let's recap the first half of the season and see where each of positions stack up in terms of predicted WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  I am getting the majority of this information from my go-to source, Redleg Nation.

Basically, this information weighs the current performances and gives a best guess as to what the final WAR numbers will be for these guys.

For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart: (Taken from Fangraphs.com)

WAR 0-1 = Scrub
WAR 1-2 = Role Player
WAR 2-3 = Solid Starter
WAR 3-4 = All-Star
WAR 4-5 = Superstar
WAR 6+  = MVP Caliber

Catcher:
Ryan Hanigan - .276/.356/.363
Devin Mesoraco - .214/.296/.293
WAR Pace: 2.3

1st Base:
Joey Votto - .348/.471/.617
WAR Pace: 9.7 (Unreal! We should pray to the Baseball Gods that we were blessed with this guy)

2nd Base:
Brandon Phillips - .280/.322/.428
WAR Pace: 4.3

3rd Base:
Todd Frazier - .278/.345/.556
Scott Rolen - .178/.241/.302
WAR Pace: 2.1 (Rolen's WAR is -0.5, bringing down the actual total)

Shortstop:
Zack Cozart - .252/.298/.409
WAR Pace: 3.5

Lef Field:
Chris Heisey - .268/.310/.390
Ryan Ludwick - .239/.311/.478
WAR Pace: 2.8

Center Field
Drew Stubbs - .215/.286/.367
WAR Pace: 1.0 (Expect Drew to improve.  I mean, how much worse could he be right now statistically?)

Right Field
Jay Bruce - 249/.326/.505
WAR Pace: 2.5 (Jay's defense has hurt his overall prediction. He should end up over 3.0 for sure)

Starting Pitching
Johnny Cueto - WAR Pace: 5.8 (Yep, he's good)
Mat Latos - WAR Pace: 2.1 (But we all know he just keeps looking better and better)
Mike Leake - WAR Pace: 2.7 (Lookin' better all the time)
Bronson Arroyo - WAR Pace: 2.5
Homer Bailey - WAR Pace: 1.6

Bullpen
WAR Pace: 5.2



Scrub0-1 WAR
Role Player1-2 WAR
Solid Starter2-3 WAR
Good Player3-4 WAR
All-Star4-5 WAR
Superstar5-6 WAR
MVP6+ WAR

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