By Ryan Bramwell
Ok. This is tough, I know. The deadline is less than seven days away and we are pretty certain the Reds will be picking up at least one position player. Drew Stubbs is 27 years old and will turn 28 in October. We have continuously supported him because we know he is talented and has some major potential. We know Drew is disappointed with himself and wants with every fiber of his being to become the player he knows he can be. But guys, I have got to tell you, I think it is time we consider replacing him in one form or another. Whether we use him as part of a deal to bring in a non-rental, productive outfielder or we use him as a backup off the bench. We need to do something about this.
OK, let's first take a look a Drew so we can properly analyze the situation and know precisely where he is not producing. From there, we can look into the rumors and find out who can best put up the numbers at the top of the Reds lineup.
-Baseball-Reference - Drew Stubbs
-FanGraphs - Drew Stubbs
You'll notice the drop in Drew's production immediately. All his numbers are down across the board for the most part. He is batting .220. His on-base percentage is .289. His slugging percentage is even down (.355) which in combination with his OBP, of course means that his on-base+slugging (OPS) is an awful .644. His WAR is 0.6 or 0.4 depending on the source. His Wins Above Average is a negative number. That's bad, fellas. I, myself, am a believer in the OBP/OPS statistics and feel we need somebody who can fill in those categories.
Jocketty and company have under a week to perform some moves in favor of the Reds organization before the deadline. I have heard and read a slew of rumors. Some of which have died, and some that continue to swirl around and remain possibilities. Mainly, it will come down to what the Reds won't do. Meaning that it depends on what our trade partner is asking from us in order to make the swap. The farm system wasn't depleted by this past off-season, but the MLB-ready talent was however. There are surely a ton of possibilities and names the Reds are willing to part with in order to make a deal that will get them deep into the post-season, but who? Billy Hamilton? Henry Rodriguez? DiDi Gregorious? Kyle Lotzkar? Or will it take a current major leaguer to sweeten the pot and make the deal complete? If so, would you be willing to part ways with the aforementioned Drew Stubbs? Does it matter to you if the player we get in return for Drew and/or prospects is a rental until the end of this season only? After all, it is quite possible that Billy Hamilton could train in the outfield in the off-season and be brought up to the majors for 2013. Hamilton will not take the spot of Brandon Phillips or Zack Cozart in the middle infield and he is getting closer everyday to being MLB-ready, thus he will move to the outfield. Would you be happier if the Reds traded a relief pitcher for a great outfielder and top-of-the-order guy? I read a rumor that the Reds nixed a straight-up deal with the Phillies that would have involved Logan Ondrusek and Shane Victorino. Sounds like a steal really. But you also have to factor in that Victorino will be a free agent at the end of the season. If the Reds really did turn that offer down, then I might drive to the Queen City myself and slap somebody. But I digress. Let's go over the potential targets one more time before the deadline.
Shane Victorino - .253/.316/.386/.702, 21 SB, 33/47 BB/K
Positives: Switch hitter, plus fielder, speedy, top-of-the-order guy, GABP the break he needs?
Negatives: Having worst offensive year of his career, 31 yrs, rental for season (in the last year of his contract)
Denard Span - .280/.344/.384/.728, 9 SB, 35/47 BB/K
Positives: Left-handed, 28 yrs, 2 yrs left on contract, plus fielder, high OBP, top-of-the-order guy
Negatives: Asking price?
Juan Pierre - .305/.346/.370/.717, 23 SB, 15/15 BB/K
Positives: Left-handed, high BA/OBP, cheap at $800K, top-of-the-order guy
Negatives: Rental player for the season, 34 yrs old
Mark Kotsay -.287/.354/.368/.722, 0 SB, 9/7 BB/K
Positives: Left-handed bat off the bench, plays OF/1B, Good at-bats
Negatives: 36 yrs old, not a top-caliber name, not top-of-the-order material
Other names such as Josh Willingham, Carlos Quentin, Coco Crisp and Arizona's Upton are still out there as well. Let's hope the brass makes the right decision when the time comes.
Carlos Quentin just signed a 3 year extension at $27 million. So if we go after him, that is a three year commitment to a guy who has put up middle of the road production and is a liability in the field. I say he is out.
ReplyDeleteWillingham would be a great fit, but the Twins are going to want a lot of young talent as they rebuild.
Upton doesn't impress me that much and he doesn't seem like he would be a good fit in the clubhouse. Same goes for Crisp.
I still think Victorino is the answer, even if it is a rental. The Phillies are not rebuilding so we shouldn't have to hand them a lot. He has had a down season, but the Phillies have been pretty miserable this year. Sometimes a guy like that plays to the team he is on, if we put him in that line up and he is winning, I think it would make a difference.
Kotsay shouldn't really be a though at this point, he isn't an everyday guy and with Ludwick's resurgence lately, we really don't need him. Plus the fact that he plays first base would give dusty another reason to try and play him over Frazier which we don't need.
I say with what is available, Victorino should be it. I think if we can't get him, then we might have to stick with what we've got and ride it out. Pierre wouldn't be bad, but wouldn't be worth giving up very much to get him.
Nick, I tend to agree with you. I think the power bats that the Reds were said to be pursuing earlier on are out of the question now. With the "resurgence" of Ryan Ludwick it doesn't seem like a necessity anymore. Ludwick (.244/15/43) needed a place like GABP to get his homers up and therefore, his confidence back. Plus, he is an above-average fielder out in left. Heisey has not put up anywhere close to the power numbers he did last year, but he is batting .275 with 20 RBI. Add to that: Heisey hustles down the line on every ground ball with above-average speed and is also a plus fielder in left and center field. It looks as though Dusty is going to be playing the new kid in town, Xavier Paul, tonight. I believe it is the second or third time he has started. In four at-bats he has produced a run on a walk and also struck out. He is getting time mainly because he is left-handed.
ReplyDeleteChris Heisey -http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heisech01.shtml
Ryan Ludwick - http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/ludwiry01.shtml
Xavier Paul - http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paulxa01.shtml
(More in next Comment)
-So, Carlos Quentin is out. Yes, I agree. The Padres were said to have been looking to lock both him and Huston Street into new contracts. Obviously, that doesn't mean they aren't available but they should be off-limits as far as the Reds are concerned.
ReplyDelete-Josh Willingham is only viable in my opinion if he comes at relatively cheap price. And he will not come at a cheap price with the kind of numbers he is putting up. Minnesota is a small-market club like us and they are going to want lots of prospects in return to rebuild their team.
-Mark Kotsay I'm afraid is a possibility. It's not terrible, but it's not necessary. He would play a key role off the bench and would add the left-handed bat that Dusty wants. However, I would only take him if the Padres take next to nothing for him. And like you said, he will take time away from Heisey/Ludwick and possibly even Frazier if he were signed today.
-Now, on to the more interesting guys that make more sense to this team. We need top-of-the-order, high OBP guys that preferably bat left handed or switch hit. I would not trade Stubbs for a rental, but I would for a guy like Span or Victorino if they were going to be with the Reds for at least the 2013 season. Obviously, due to the lack of Stubbs production, we will have to offer at least one prospect in the mix to obtain a player that meets those qualifications.
-So we are looking at Juan Pierre, Shane Victorino, Denard Span and Coco Crisp. Crisp is out, no doubt. That guy is a clubhouse nightmare and having a bad season to boot. Let's no talk about him. Pierre is a different story. He is only making $800k this season and putting up tremendous numbers. And he did it with a heavily depleted lineup behind him in Philadelphia due to all the injuries. Span is having a down-year compared to his previous seasons, but he is still young. Plus, he's an extraordinary fielder and bats left-handed like Pierre. And with all of these players we have to remember the GABP Factor. Their numbers have a high probability of going up just from playing half their games in Cincinnati.
Victorino is by far the most proven player in the discussion. Like I mentioned before in a previous article, he is having the worst season of his career and is still far out-producing Stubbs. You put a switch-hitting Victorino at the top of the Reds lineup in GABP and I see good things happening. You could move Brandon to the two spot, and Votto will be back at the three spot soon enough. From there you could go a ton of different ways. The cleanup spot should be Frazier or Ludwick. Rolen has been playing a lot better as of late (although Todd Frazier has quickly won my heart and become my second favorite Red behind Joey). Bruce would be your 5-hitter. 6-7-8 would be whatever works. But we are getting ahead of ourselves, or at least I am.
-I'm excited to see what the Reds do in the remaining 6 days. If anything at all. But I can tell you that I side with you on the majority of things. I would only pursue Victorino, Pierre, and Span. In that order. And only if the price is right.
I think giving up on Stubbs would be a mistake. He is young and still learning situational hitting. I truly believe he has the tools to be a great player, A GREAT player. Yes he strikes out at an unacceptable rate and his BA isn't great either but I'm convinced if the reds hold on he will prove to be a dependable lead off man. Look at what the waiting game has done concerning Homer Bailey. Yes two different players obviously but both 1St round picks. Stubbs is going to be a great ball player and I'm hoping it's with us...-Kahn
ReplyDelete