Friday, August 3, 2012

Ouch! ESPN Analyzes The HBP

If you haven't been over to ESPN.com lately and checked out the article by Tim Kurkjian or seen the Sports Science video, do yourself a favor and check it out!

What It Feels Like To Get Hit By A Pitch

The video is intriguing enough, but the article dazzles with plenty of MLB player testimonials about being hit by a pitch in the big leagues.  Players discuss the fear of being hit, the pain that is endured when they are, and how they are taught not to visibly show either feeling afterward.  There is an amazing story about Don Zimmer that blows me away within the article that you will probably need to read twice to believe.

Click on the link above and read the article and watch the video.  I assure you that it is worth your time.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati: Probables

Friday, August 3rd - 7:10pm - Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH


       
Wandy Rodriguez (L)
vs Mat Latos (R)





Rodriguez: W-L: 7-9  ERA: 3.82  WHIP: 1.30
Latos: W-L: 9-3  ERA: 4.17  WHIP: 1.24




Saturday, August 4th - 7:10pm - Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH

 

James McDonald (R)
vs Mike Leake (R)





McDonald: W-L: 10-5  ERA: 3.38  WHIP: 1.18
Leake: W-L: 4-7  ERA: 4.44  WHIP: 1.35




Sunday, August 5th - 1:10pm - Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH



A.J. Burnett (R)
vs. Homer Bailey (R)







Burnett: W-L: 13-3  ERA: 3.27  WHIP: 1.19
Bailey: W-L: 9-6  ERA: 3.85  WHIP: 1.33 


















Cy Young Candidate: Johnny Cueto


By Ryan Bramwell


26-year-old Johnny Cueto has emerged as one of baseball's premeir pitchers.  Cueto has recently put a string of five consecutive wins together from the mound, tying his career high.  After today's win over the Padres, Cueto picked up his MLB-leading 14th victory.  He also tied a season high in strikeouts with nine to put his season's total at 115 K's.  He has only walked 35 batters on the year to boot. 

Standing at only 5'10", Johnny is not an intimidating spectacle on the mound like other guys.  In fact, when he was still a young man in the Dominican, Johnny wasn't even interested in being a pitcher.  He was a converted position player later on and all us Reds fans are thankful for that.  Very thankful.  When Edinson Volquez came over from Texas in the Josh Hamilton deal he seemed like the real deal.  He was an All-Star the following season and won 17 games for the Reds.  When Cueto arrived, we all figured he would just be a smaller, less impressive version of Volquez.  I remember Johnny's first start in '08 when he struck out ten batters and it seemed as though the Reds had put together quite a tandem with the two Dominican boys.  Then Volquez fell apart, got injured, came back from Tommy John surgery, and continued to look awful.  He could not find the plate.  This is still the case for Volquez in San Diego.  He pitches in the game's most friendly park for pitchers and he still has to throw a ton of pitches every start.  And that is where I will make my first major point for Johnny Cueto and the 2012 Cy Young Award; the ballpark factor.

Cueto and the rest of the unlucky pitching staff for the Reds are priveledged with throwing in the major's top home run hitting stadium, Great American Ballpark.  And when you consider just how wonderfully the entire staff has faced this adversity and put together the third best team ERA in all of baseball, it is a truly special feat indeed.  But then you take a look at home and away split stats for hurlers like Homer Bailey, and you can see how no pitcher would like to make half his starts in GABP.  Bailey is 9-6 with a 3.85 ERA to go along with 15 quality starts.  That is a rate of 71% of his starts.  But here is where you can make a prime example of the ballpark factor.  For Bailey, home ain't where the wins are, but on the road.  Away from Cincinnati, Bailey is 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA.  He has given up 21 less hits and has a batting average against of .227.  Not to mention, Homer has given up only four home runs in his 68.1 innings pitched away from GABP.  Now let's take a look at Homer on the mound at Great American:  62.2 IP, 3-4, 5.17 ERA, .309 BAA, 14 HR allowed.  A dramatic shift, wouldn't you say?  Now, Bailey is still young at 26, and he's already been in the league since '07.  That in itself, is incredible really.  He didn't begin seeing regular rotation innings until '09, but nevertheless, Homer is a year away from being a veteran.  What I am trying to get at is Homer is having the best season of his career and if all his games were played away from Cincinnati, then he too might be a Cy Young Candidate.  Moreover, I am stating that there is major disadvantage to pitching in GABP compared to nearly every other ballpark in the land.  This sets me up for the comparison to Johnny Cueto.  Johnny is the same age as Homer and is in his fifth year of service in the majors.  He pitched 174 innings in his debut season and gave up 29 homers in 31 starts.  Johnny gave up two home runs today to bring his season total to seven allowed in 146.2 innings.  That is quite a difference, huh?  Here's a snippet from ESPN's game-recap:

"Cueto (14-5) gave up a home run for the first time in more than two months...the first home run allowed by Cueto in 80 innings -- the longest stretch in the majors this season -- over 11 starts since Colorado's Todd Helton homered on May 25 in Cincinnati. The homer was the first by a right-hander allowed by Cueto since Washington's Ryan Zimmerman hit one on Aug. 17, 2011, a span of 169 innings." 

The first home run off Cueto by a right-hander in 169 innings?  Yeah, that is historic if you ask me.  169 innings is all that a majority of starters throw in a full season.  And just so you don't think it's a fluke, here are last years stats for Cueto:  156 IP, 9-5, 2.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and only 8 HR allowed.  He is continuing right where he left off last season.  Johnny's current stat line goes something like this: 146.2 IP, 14-5, 2.52 ERA, 115/35 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP.  He has 16 quality starts which is 76% of them. 

Cueto's Rankings - Among NL Pitchers W/ 120+ IP
WAR: 4.5 (1st)
Wins: 14 (1st)
ERA: 2.52 (4th)
Starts: 22 (1st)
IP: 146.2 (2nd)
ER: 41 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.21 (19th)
CG: 2 (2nd)
QS: 16 (4th)
HR: 7 (2nd)

When you consider the fact that Cueto has had one of the lowest ERA's in the National League for nearly two seasons while pitching in a pitcher-hating ballpark like Great American, it is pretty darned amazing.  I think the committee will be thoughtful enough to take this into consideration when looking at the league's Cy Young candidates.  Then when you consider the fact he was snubbed from the All-Star game, I think he may get a little extra love because of that too.  In the end, all that matters is he plays for us.  And we appreciate the hard work and dedication he has put into becoming a elite force on the mound.  Johnny Cueto is certainly a contender for this year's Cy Young Award.  What do you think? 

Cueto Strikes Out Nine Padres - 08/02/12

Game 105: 3 In A Row! We're Doin' It Again!

Cueto Sharp, Rolen Looking Good As Reds Take Third Straight

San Diego   4   8   1
Cincinnati    9  13  0

By Ryan Bramwell

  • Johnny Cueto earned his 14th victory today against the San Diego Padres.  Johnny pitched seven and a third and gave up four runs on eight hits.  He struck out nine batters and walked only one.  Cueto should really only have given up two runs but a botched double play by Cairo at second base kept that from happening.  Either way, Johnny was solid.
  • Ondrusek and Arredondo pitched the final inning and two-thirds and did so very capably.  Together they allowed one baserunner on a walk and gave up no hits.
  • Scott Rolen continued his steady offense since the All-Star break as he reached base four times today.  Rolen singled thrice and walked once.  He also had an RBI and a run scored.  His batting average is now up to .234.
  • Todd Frazier bombed a two-run shot over the left-center field wall in the 2nd inning off Ohlendorf for his 13th on the year.  The rookie knocked in three runs total for the game.  Love this kid.
  • Cozart was moved to the 6th spot in the lineup and showed some improvement there as he had a pair of hits and an RBI.  I think the 7th spot will be his ideal spot in the lineup when everybody is back and healthy. 
  • Ryan Hanigan had a pair of hits including a double to go along with an RBI
  • Jay Bruce knocked in a pair of runs and had two singles as he continues to climb.
  • Miguel Cairo finally remembered that he knows how to hit a baseball and recorded two singles.
  • Xavier Paul was not himself today.  Apparently the leadoff spot in the Reds' lineup gives batters a hitting disease.  Paul has been exceptional in limited time with the Reds, but he struck out four times today and went 0-for-5.
The Reds have won three straight and are suddenly back on another streak.  They are 2-0 without Votto/Phillips.  14-3 without Joey. We have won 20 of the last 23 games overall and 13 of the last 14.  We are 3.5 games up on the Pirates in the division.  The Reds are also a season high 23 games over .500 and on pace to win 99 games.  How about that?

Game 104: Ludwick Strikes Again

Ludwick Outstanding Again, Warm Welcome For Broxton


San Diego   4   8   0
Cincinnati    6   9   1

By Ryan Bramwell

  • Bronson Arroyo didn't seem to have much in the tank but he was still able to do enough to earn a win for the Redlegs.  Arroyo went six innings and gave up four runs on seven hits.  He walked a pair and struck out one.  A relatively average day for a pitcher, but it was enough this time around.
  • Ryan Ludwick.  What else can you say about this guy right now.  I just did a peice on him the other day about his ridiculous July, and now he starts August right where he left off.  Ludwick went 3-for-4 with a homerun and four RBI.  This makes two straight games for Ludwick where he had a homer and four runs batted in.  Somebody is super, super hot.  Here are his current stats: .264 BA, 19 HR, 56 RBI. 
  • Drew Stubbs reached three times with a pair of singles and a walk on the night.  He also scored twice.  Stubbs continues his second-half surge and has looked very confident doing so.
  • Zack Cozart hit a leadoff home run to kick off the first inning for the Reds.  It was Zack's 11th on the year.
  • Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier both contributed with a double.  Bruce also got an RBI on his double.
  • Sean Marshall, Jonathan Broxton and Aroldis Chapman pitched a terrific final three innings of work.
  • Broxton received a standing ovation from the Cincinnati faithful after he pitched a perfect 8th inning.  He notched a strikeout and two soft ground balls while only throwing a total of 11 pitches.
  • Chapman got his 23rd save on the season and his 15th consecutive save conversion.
  • Wilson Valdez (replacing the injured Brandon Phillips) walked twice before he had to leave the game due to neck stiffness.
The Reds just keep winning.  19 wins in 22 games.  12 of the last 13.  13-3 without Joey.  Best record in baseball.  Are you having as much fun as I am?

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Trade Deadline: Reds Acquire Relief Help? More Moves Still To Come?

Reds Obtain Closer Broxton, Waiver Period Not Over

By Ryan Bramwell

What'd I tell ya?  The Reds, despite all my efforts, research and articles, would go completely off the radar and acquire a player I barely covered or mentioned throughout the deadline period. 

Jonathan Broxton.  That was the Reds acquisition on Tuesday afternoon.  A closing pitcher.  Just a few years ago he was certainly one of the most dominant closers in baseball.  Now in his 8th season, Broxton has seen a rise in his stock after a couple of subpar seasons in 2010 and 2011.  Broxton has pitched quite well for the Royals this season after spending his first seven with the same Dodger club in Los Angeles.  Jonathan is by no means a small man as he stands at 6'4" and weighs in at three bills.  That kind of mass means he can really fire the baseball to the plate.  Let's take a closer look at the Reds' new...gee, I don't know.  New guy out of the pen?  I mean Chapman is the closer, right? 

Broxton's best season:
2009: 2.61 ERA, 36/42 Saves/Opps, 0.96 WHIP, 114 K's/76 IP

Broxton in 2012 w/ Royals:
2012: 2.27 ERA, 23/27 Saves/Opps, 1.40 WHIP, 25 K's/35.2 IP

His ERA is better.  What concerns me however, is his WHIP and much reduced strikeout rate.  Plus, where does Broxton fit in on this team.  He's not going to be closing unless the organization has been hiding the fact that Aroldis Chapman is suddenly going to be starting games over Mike Leake.  That cannot be possible for those of you with your hopes up.  The brass has stated the Chapman will absolutely not being starting this season.  They did not specifically say, "post-season" though.  Still, I don't see the Reds suddenly throwing their future ace into the national spotlight and in the crucial situation that are the playoffs for his very first ever starts as a big league pitcher.  So that means Broxton is an addition to an already elite bullpen.

The New Nasty Boys?
With Broxton aboard, the Reds now have a seemingly impenetratable bullpen with the likes of Chapman and Marshall already there.  Broxton, Marshall, Chapman.  It rings beautifully like Myers, Dibble and Charlton once did.  Our bullpen is stacked, there is no doubt about that.  LeCure, Simon, Ondrusek, Arredondo, Marshall, Broxton, and Chapman.  No, I didn not say Bray.  I know.  But he's there too I guess.  But won't somebody have to be sent down?  Most likely, yes.  I realize Bray is left-handed, but I say send him down.  That's just my opinion.

What'd We Give Up?
The Reds traded away to minor league pitchers: Donnie Joseph and J.C. Sulbaran.  Joseph is a reliever and will probably be in the Royals major league bullpen pretty soon if not right away.  Sulbaran is starter and only 22 years old.  He was probably the tougher of the two prospects to part with.  But we are trying to win a World Series and you have to do what you have to do in order to make it there. 

So Are We Done Acquiring Players?
Maybe.  Maybe not.  Juan Pierre will still be available through the remainder of the waiver period (Aug. 30th).  It is very possible that the Reds are still planning on making a move for Pierre and want to get him for as little as possible.  Players like Cliff Lee, Jed Lowrie, Josh Johnson, Jason Giambi, Josh Beckett, Stephen Drew, Alfonso Soriano, Jeff Francoeur and Placido Polanco are also still out there on the same list as Pierre.  I would not be surprised to see the Reds' make one more move (maybe even more significant than the Broxton deal) before too long.  Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't either.

Ludwick: May Explode Due to Increasing Hotness at the Plate

Month-By-Month Ludwick Continues to Progress in Every Offensive Category

By Ryan Bramwell

This is just something I have wanted to go over lately, but have not had time to do so.  They have brought it up on WLW and on FS Ohio during the games as well.  Ryan Ludwick has been scorching hot lately.  Seriously. 

April: .190 BA, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 5 BB (.190/.266/.397/.663)
May:  .224 BA, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 6 BB (.224/.321/.388/.709)
June:  .253 BA, 6 HR, 13 RBI, 9 BB (.253/.326/.582/.908)
July:   .333 BA, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 5 BB (.333/.383/.707/1.090)

2012: .257 BA, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 25 BB (.257/.328/.540/.868)

An OBP of .328?  An OPS of .868?  Heck yeah, I'll take that!  Ludwick should certainly be considered for Comeback Player of the Year for his efforts this season.  Of course, he'll need to finish the season close to the rate he's averaged out at thus far, but that doesn't look like it'll be a problem.  Ludwick is very happy about playing in Cincinnati and has mentioned publicly that he loves the team and the chemistry that is there.  GABP is the exact opposite of PETCO and has helped tremendously for a power-hitter like Ryan.  This has led to a major confidence boost and he will not shy away from telling you that.  He likes to hit home runs and fancies himself as a power, home run guy.  He bombed 37 homers in St. Louis and then 22 more the following season back in '08 and '09.  Then he was sent to San Diego where he struggled mightily and managed only 17 homers (11 in St. Louis/6 in San Deigo).  He then spent the majority of 2011 with the Padres before being shipped off to Pittsburgh and was quite weak that year as well (11 in San Diego/2 in Pittsburgh) as he managed a season total of 13 homers.  But now in Cincy, Ludwick has already bombed 18 homers.  He has done so while playing a platooned position in the field and not getting everyday starts.  Ludwick can officially be considered a valuable pick up for the Reds this past offseason.