Recaps & Outlooks for the Reds Starting Outfield
Ryan Ludwick (R)
2013 Stats - .240 AVG, .293 OBP, 2 HR, 12 RBI *(38 Games/129 At Bats -Due to Injury)
2013 Recap:
Luddy was injured on Opening Day last season and didn't return to the lineup until August 12th. He was without his power and probably not ready to see live action on the field just yet. But the Reds didn't make a move for a big bat at the trade deadline like some of us had hoped and Ludwick was relied upon to be good as new when he returned, which he was not.
2014 Outlook:
Looking ahead to 2014, we can expect that Ryan, who will turn 36 in July, will be giving all he's got to give on the offensive side of the ball for the Reds. I am expecting a productive year out of his bat, albeit not like his 2012 season of 26 homers and 80 runs batted in. On the contrary, I don't expect much from his glove out in left field. He's a subpar defender, and at his age, covering the range in most ballparks is going to be a cause for concern. Luddy still has the ability to make a fashionable play every once in a great while, and as a veteran, he will make more "heady" plays than he will fashionable; however, I expect to see some quality time split with Chris Heisey or even Reds newcomer Roger Bernadina.
2014 Prediction - .255 AVG, .320 OBP, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 20 2B
Billy Hamilton (S)
2013 Stats - .368 AVG, .429 OBP, 2 2B, 7 Hits/19 At-Bats, 13-for-14 SBs
2013 Recap:
To put it in an unoriginal and hackneyed way, Billy Hamilton stole the show when he was called up to the Big Leagues last September. While a prospect in the minor leagues, "B-Ham" was reveled nation-wide because of his impeccable base-stealing abilities. In 2012, between High-A and Double A baseball, Hamilton stole a record 155 bases. That is 10 more than the previous minor league stolen base record holder Vince Coleman's total. And it is 25 more than the Major League single-season record held by Rickey Henderson, baseball's all-time steals leader. Hamilton's foot speed brings talk and clamor among fans and analysts in such a way that it creates folklore-like imagery when his stories of speed are discussed and debated. You hear stories about the sound of Walter Johnson's fastball, Babe Ruth's power, Mantle's 'crack-of-the-bat' from both sides of the plate, Mays' superlative five-tools, etc, etc. In an age where social media and 24-hour sports news networks dominate the medium, it is nearly impossible to come across and/or create one of those legendary, almost mythical sports figures. Yet, somehow, Billy Hamilton is coming pretty darn close.
In 14 games, "Billy Bases" stole 13 bags in 14 attempts. Dusty Baker slotted Hamilton to start or sub in games where the matchups and scenarios were opportunistic and heavily in Billy's favor. Because of this, we saw in just 22 plate appearances, what a confident Billy can do. Hamilton batted .368 with a .429 OBP, getting seven hits in 19 at-bats. Not to mention, he stole 13 bases, walked twice, and he hit two doubles in those plate appearances. This success was quite contrary to what Reds fans were expecting, as Billy's 2013 season in Triple A wasn't as fruitful at the plate as his previous two years in lower-level minors. In 2012, he batted .311 with a superb .410 OBP. But when we was advanced to Triple A, Billy couldn't hit or get on base anywhere close to the same rate, as he batted .256 with a subpar .306 OBP. Again, though, Hamilton thrived in the spots in which Dusty Baker slotted him when he was called up in September, giving Reds fans a collective sigh of relief as to what kind of offense they could expect at the Big League level.
2014 Outlook:
After the Reds failed to re-sign the on-base machine that was Shin-Soo Choo, they decided to promote from within rather than look to the market or make a trade for a new centerfielder. Many analysts and fans enjoyed playing devil's advocate upon hearing this news, asking questions like: Is Billy really ready for The Show? September of 2013 was a super-small sample size with pitching matchups in Billy's favor, do you think he can actually hit anywhere near that level playing full-time? Why didn't we move Billy to shortstop (his original position) and re-sign Choo or someone else for less money? Won't the Reds regress substantially on offense with the departure of Choo and an unproven replacement filling his spot? These were all asked, or more aptly, were complained about in some form or another.
It's true, a lot is being handed over to B-Ham in his rookie season. He knows he won't get on base like Choo, but he also knows he doesn't have to be successful the same ways Choo was. Hamilton is noted as a supremely quick learner, and he has taken to learning centerfield optimally. In fact, some would already call him a plus-defender in the outfield, with the only lacking area being his arm strength. Hamilton's speed and range make him a much more potent threat on defense than he ever was when playing shortstop. Being able to get to short-sinking line drives or fly balls hit deep in any ballpark gives Hamilton a major advantage over Choo. And if he can't hit that well, or heaven forbid, at all, then expect him to make plenty of appearances for pinch-running and defensive substitutions. Even in that scenario, the worst possible scenario where he doesn't hit, Billy can still rack up just as much WAR as Choo did (4.2) last season just by pinch running, defensive subbing, and getting the occasional start. My prediction for "The Man of Steal" in 2014? I think we get the Billy Hamilton that Triple A saw. We see a guy who doesn't get on base as much as your prototypical leadoff hitter should, but he makes more of his on-base chances count than anyone else in the game. I certainly foresee 2-5 homers, and I expect to see at least two home runs of the inside-the-park variety. Fun!
2014 Prediction: .250 AVG, .295 OBP, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 65 SB, 25 2Bs, 8 3Bs
Jay Bruce (L)
2013 Stats - .262 AVG, .329 OBP, 30 HR, 109 RBI, 43 2Bs, 7 SBs
2013 Recap:
Bruuuuuuce! Jay Bruce continued to progress in every facet in the 2013 campaign. The upward trend of Jay's abilities got him some nods from the baseball writers as he received votes for the NL MVP and took home the Silver Slugger award for NL right fielders, both accomplishments were received for the second consecutive season. Not akin to the previous two seasons, Jables finally got over the 100 RBI mark, after notching 97 and 99 in 2012 and 2013 respectively. His 109 RBI in 2014 came, in part, from knocking 30 home runs, which made for the third straight year he has 30 or more homers. However, after being selected to the NL All Star team in 2012 and 2013, he surprisingly missed out on that opportunity last season. Bruce also tallied 43 doubles which was good for third in the NL, trailing Yadier Molina's 44 and Matt Carpenter's monstrous 55 two-baggers.
Aside from all the positive statistics, Bruce did have his ups and downs in 2013. Jay has been pegged as a streaky player, and that isn't a false assessment. When he is on, he is one of the toughest outs in the league. When he isn't on, well, he becomes a strikeout machine and seems incapable of breaking his atrocious slumps. Jay struck out 185 times in 2013, 30 more times than in 2012 (in about 60 more plate appearances), a new personal high. His on-base percentage, however, remained near his career level at .330, which is certainly a positive. In the field, Bruce is still a well-known for his left cannon, which is respected among his player peers. Two years removed from his wrist injury, Jay was able to fully extend himself in the field, to which he marked a positive defensive WAR rating according to Baseball-Reference.com. Overall, Bruce notched a 4.9 Wins Above Replacement rating in 2013.
2014 Outlook:
If the Beaumont Bomber continues his upward trends, then I feel, like many Reds fans, that he has the capability to receive even more votes in the NL MVP voting in 2014. If Jables' streaks at the plate can stretch for longer periods and his slumps can last considerably shorter, then the once highly-touted prospect may finally accomplish what all Reds fans assumed he could...and be a bonafide superstar in the MLB. With a solid performance from those hitting in front of him in the lineup, Jay Bruce could once again knock in 100 runs. Now that new manager Bryan Price is batting him directly behind OBP-monster Joey Votto, there is no denying that he could knock in 115+, not to mention hit his usual 30+ homers. The x-factor for Jay is lowering his strikeout rate and cutting down his slump lengths. If he can raise his batting average to .275+, then look out, because Jay Bruce will be in the MVP race when September rolls around. In conclusion, my thoughts are that Jables will continue that upward trend he's been building and be the most overall productive Redleg in 2014.
2014 Prediction: .278 AVG, .330 OBP, 37 HRs, 110 RBI, 40 2Bs, 10 SBs
No comments:
Post a Comment