2014 Reds Season Preview: The Starting Outfield

Recaps & Outlooks for the Reds Starting Outfield

Ryan Ludwick (R)                                                                                                                                   

2013 Stats - .240 AVG, .293 OBP, 2 HR, 12 RBI *(38 Games/129 At Bats -Due to Injury)
             
2013 Recap:
Luddy was injured on Opening Day last season and didn't return to the lineup until August 12th. He was without his power and probably not ready to see live action on the field just yet. But the Reds didn't make a move for a big bat at the trade deadline like some of us had hoped and Ludwick was relied upon to be good as new when he returned, which he was not.
             
2014 Outlook:
Looking ahead to 2014, we can expect that Ryan, who will turn 36 in July, will be giving all he's got to give on the offensive side of the ball for the Reds. I am expecting a productive year out of his bat, albeit not like his 2012 season of 26 homers and 80 runs batted in. On the contrary, I don't expect much from his glove out in left field. He's a subpar defender, and at his age, covering the range in most ballparks is going to be a cause for concern.  Luddy still has the ability to make a fashionable play every once in a great while, and as a veteran, he will make more "heady" plays than he will fashionable; however, I expect to see some quality time split with Chris Heisey or even Reds newcomer Roger Bernadina.

2014 Prediction - .255 AVG, .320 OBP, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 20 2B


Billy Hamilton (S)                                                                                                                                    

2013 Stats - .368 AVG, .429 OBP, 2 2B, 7 Hits/19 At-Bats, 13-for-14 SBs 

2013 Recap:
To put it in an unoriginal and hackneyed way, Billy Hamilton stole the show when he was called up to the Big Leagues last September.  While a prospect in the minor leagues, "B-Ham" was reveled nation-wide because of his impeccable base-stealing abilities.  In 2012, between High-A and Double A baseball, Hamilton stole a record 155 bases.  That is 10 more than the previous minor league stolen base record holder Vince Coleman's total.  And it is 25 more than the Major League single-season record held by Rickey Henderson, baseball's all-time steals leader.  Hamilton's foot speed brings talk and clamor among fans and analysts in such a way that it creates folklore-like imagery when his stories of speed are discussed and debated.  You hear stories about the sound of Walter Johnson's fastball, Babe Ruth's power, Mantle's 'crack-of-the-bat' from both sides of the plate, Mays' superlative five-tools, etc, etc.  In an age where social media and 24-hour sports news networks dominate the medium, it is nearly impossible to come across and/or create one of those legendary, almost mythical sports figures.  Yet, somehow, Billy Hamilton is coming pretty darn close.

In 14 games, "Billy Bases" stole 13 bags in 14 attempts.  Dusty Baker slotted Hamilton to start or sub in games where the matchups and scenarios were opportunistic and heavily in Billy's favor.  Because of this, we saw in just 22 plate appearances, what a confident Billy can do.  Hamilton batted .368 with a .429 OBP, getting seven hits in 19 at-bats.  Not to mention, he stole 13 bases, walked twice, and he hit two doubles in those plate appearances.  This success was quite contrary to what Reds fans were expecting, as Billy's 2013 season in Triple A wasn't as fruitful at the plate as his previous two years in lower-level minors.  In 2012, he batted .311 with a superb .410 OBP.  But when we was advanced to Triple A, Billy couldn't hit or get on base anywhere close to the same rate, as he batted .256 with a subpar .306 OBP.  Again, though, Hamilton thrived in the spots in which Dusty Baker slotted him when he was called up in September, giving Reds fans a collective sigh of relief as to what kind of offense they could expect at the Big League level.   

2014 Outlook:
After the Reds failed to re-sign the on-base machine that was Shin-Soo Choo, they decided to promote from within rather than look to the market or make a trade for a new centerfielder.  Many analysts and fans enjoyed playing devil's advocate upon hearing this news, asking questions like: Is Billy really ready for The Show?  September of 2013 was a super-small sample size with pitching matchups in Billy's favor, do you think he can actually hit anywhere near that level playing full-time?  Why didn't we move Billy to shortstop (his original position) and re-sign Choo or someone else for less money?  Won't the Reds regress substantially on offense with the departure of Choo and an unproven replacement filling his spot?  These were all asked, or more aptly, were complained about in some form or another. 

It's true, a lot is being handed over to B-Ham in his rookie season.  He knows he won't get on base like Choo, but he also knows he doesn't have to be successful the same ways Choo was.  Hamilton is noted as a supremely quick learner, and he has taken to learning centerfield optimally.  In fact, some would already call him a plus-defender in the outfield, with the only lacking area being his arm strength.  Hamilton's speed and range make him a much more potent threat on defense than he ever was when playing shortstop.  Being able to get to short-sinking line drives or fly balls hit deep in any ballpark gives Hamilton a major advantage over Choo.  And if he can't hit that well, or heaven forbid, at all, then expect him to make plenty of appearances for pinch-running and defensive substitutions.  Even in that scenario, the worst possible scenario where he doesn't hit, Billy can still rack up just as much WAR as Choo did (4.2) last season just by pinch running, defensive subbing, and getting the occasional start.  My prediction for "The Man of Steal" in 2014?  I think we get the Billy Hamilton that Triple A saw.  We see a guy who doesn't get on base as much as your prototypical leadoff hitter should, but he makes more of his on-base chances count than anyone else in the game.  I certainly foresee 2-5 homers, and I expect to see at least two home runs of the inside-the-park variety.  Fun!

2014 Prediction: .250 AVG, .295 OBP, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 65 SB, 25 2Bs, 8 3Bs


Jay Bruce (L)                                                                                                                                           

2013 Stats - .262 AVG, .329 OBP, 30 HR, 109 RBI, 43 2Bs, 7 SBs


2013 Recap:
Bruuuuuuce!  Jay Bruce continued to progress in every facet in the 2013 campaign.  The upward trend of Jay's abilities got him some nods from the baseball writers as he received votes for the NL MVP and took home the Silver Slugger award for NL right fielders, both accomplishments were received for the second consecutive season.  Not akin to the previous two seasons, Jables finally got over the 100 RBI mark, after notching 97 and 99 in 2012 and 2013 respectively.  His 109 RBI in 2014 came, in part, from knocking 30 home runs, which made for the third straight year he has 30 or more homers.  However, after being selected to the NL All Star team in 2012 and 2013, he surprisingly missed out on that opportunity last season.  Bruce also tallied 43 doubles which was good for third in the NL, trailing Yadier Molina's 44 and Matt Carpenter's monstrous 55 two-baggers.

Aside from all the positive statistics, Bruce did have his ups and downs in 2013.  Jay has been pegged as a streaky player, and that isn't a false assessment.  When he is on, he is one of the toughest outs in the league.  When he isn't on, well, he becomes a strikeout machine and seems incapable of breaking his atrocious slumps.  Jay struck out 185 times in 2013, 30 more times than in 2012 (in about 60 more plate appearances), a new personal high.  His on-base percentage, however, remained near his career level at .330, which is certainly a positive.  In the field, Bruce is still a well-known for his left cannon, which is respected among his player peers.  Two years removed from his wrist injury, Jay was able to fully extend himself in the field, to which he marked a positive defensive WAR rating according to Baseball-Reference.com.  Overall, Bruce notched a 4.9 Wins Above Replacement rating in 2013.

2014 Outlook:
If the Beaumont Bomber continues his upward trends, then I feel, like many Reds fans, that he has the capability to receive even more votes in the NL MVP voting in 2014.  If Jables' streaks at the plate can stretch for longer periods and his slumps can last considerably shorter, then the once highly-touted prospect may finally accomplish what all Reds fans assumed he could...and be a bonafide superstar in the MLB.  With a solid performance from those hitting in front of him in the lineup, Jay Bruce could once again knock in 100 runs.  Now that new manager Bryan Price is batting him directly behind OBP-monster Joey Votto, there is no denying that he could knock in 115+, not to mention hit his usual 30+ homers.  The x-factor for Jay is lowering his strikeout rate and cutting down his slump lengths.  If he can raise his batting average to .275+, then look out, because Jay Bruce will be in the MVP race when September rolls around.  In conclusion, my thoughts are that Jables will continue that upward trend he's been building and be the most overall productive Redleg in 2014.  

2014 Prediction: .278 AVG, .330 OBP, 37 HRs, 110 RBI, 40 2Bs, 10 SBs

2014 Reds Season Preview: The Starting Infield

Recaps & Outlooks for the Reds Starting Infield

C - Devin Mesoraco (R)                                                                                                                          

2013 Stats - .238 AVG, .287 OBP, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 13 2B, 61/24 K/BB, .993 FLD%

 

2013 Recap:
In 323 at-bats, Devin Mesoraco finally had the opportunity to prove his worth at the next level, mainly due to Ryan Hanigan's injuries and major lack of offensive production in 2013.  Devin has been expected by many to be an All-Star capable catcher when he reaches his prime.  Remember, Jocketty traded away switch-hitting catcher Yasmani Grandal (along with Yonder Alonso and Brad Boxberger) instead of Mesoraco in the deal with the Padres for Mat Latos.  When looking at Grandal's 2012 performance in San Diego it's hard to not be a little miffed about trading him away while keeping Mesoraco.  However, if you recall, Grandal received a 50-game suspension from MLB after being connected with the Biogenesis steroid scandal.  And since his return, Grandal has not been so productive.  That doesn't mean I don't think he will ever be productive without the aid of steroids again, but it is a major blemish on his record that will take some consistency in numbers to quiet the doubters.  On the other end of the equation there is Devin Mesoraco, who has yet to prove himself and live up to the hype that surrounded him when he was drafted 15th overall in the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft.  Albeit, Devin hasn't had everyday playing time yet, even by catcher standards (last season he had a career high 323 ABs in 103 GP).  His predecessor, Ryan Hanigan, was a handler of pitchers, trusted game caller, tremendous pitch framer, who could throw out base-stealers often.  Not to mention, up until the 2013 campaign, Hanigan could make up for his lack of power and batting average by getting on-base at a high clip.  Devin proved he could handle the variety of pitchers offered from the Reds' staff, and he showed us he could hit at times.  The offense was more miss than hit, but we still witnessed many positives. 

2014 Outlook:
When all was said and done in 2013, Mesoraco's performance left a little to be desired.  But the optimists will say given more at-bats and everyday play, he could blossom into what has been expected of him.  Devin is only 23 years old and has been handed the keys to the full-time catching position.  It is now, in 2014, when I expect to see the real version of Devin Mesoraco to arise.  I don't expect an expansive improvement on all fronts, and neither should any of us, but I do believe he will have formidable up-ticks in most statistical categories.

2014 Prediction: .245 AVG, .300 OBP, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 20 2B

1B - Joey Votto (L)                                                                                                                                  

2013 Stats- .305 AVG, .435 OBP, 24 HR, 73 RBI, 30 2B, 3 3B, 6 SB, 135/138 K/BB

2013 Recap:

Joey Votto once again led the Reds in many offensive categories, namely walks and on-base percentage, for yet another season.  Votto's name has become synonymous in baseball with the terms "walks" and "on-base percentage."  He freely trotted from home to first 138 times in 2013, which led the majors handily, with teammate Shin-Soo Choo the closest behind him at 112.  His OBP was a monstrous .435, which led the NL for the fourth consecutive season, and was second in all of baseball to back-to-back AL MVP Miguel Cabrera's .442 clip.  Despite the fact that Joey was on-base nearly half the time last season, many analysts and baseball fans still complained about his ability to drive in runs.  Joey's 73 RBI total was, in fact, a small number for the third batter in the lineup.  However, the Reds had two other players with over 100 RBI, which was in part to Votto's ability to get on base ahead of them.

2014 Outlook:
Joseph Daniel Votto will always be an extremely tough out at the plate.  He will draw walks, get hits, and get on base at a ridiculous rate.  The questions being asked about Votto for 2014 are: Will he hit for power again (say, in the area of 30 HRs) with a fully recovered knee? Will he knock in more runs and appease the analysts? Can he be more aggressive, swing at more strikes, draw less walks, and therefore, be even more effective with the talents he possesses?  Who knows?  If Joey changes his approach and mindset at the plate then it will be because Joey wants to do so.  Sure, I will admit that on occasion I would like to see Votto take more hacks at pitches, especially in specific scenarios when the Reds are in dire need of a run.  Additionally, it is cringe-inducing to watch Joey take a walk when, aside from Bruce, the lineup following him drops off significantly in offensive prowess.  I expect Votto, in a perfectly healthy season, to up his home run and runs-batted-in totals.  I think he will hit for more doubles than anything, which will increase his SLG along with that slight increase in home runs I am predicting.  I do have faith in him to be more swing-aggressive, but doing so without hampering his value.  In the end, really, how much does it matter?  I trust Joey to be Vottomatic, living up that moniker, by knowing more about hitting a baseball than anyone since his idol Ted Williams.
 

2014 Prediction - .325 AVG, .420 OBP, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 42 2B, 8 SB


2B - Brandon Phillips (R)                                                                                                                       

2013 Stats- .261 AVG, .310 OBP, 18 HR, 103 RBI, 24 2B, 2 3B, 5 SB

2013 Recap:

BP was very satisfied batting cleanup for the injured Ryan Ludwick all season in 2013. Some may take a look at his basic numbers and tell you he had a productive season at the plate, while anyone who delves into stats will tell you it was actually his least productive season in Cincinnati. My opinion would fall somewhere in between those old-school, base stat optimistics and those new-age, sabremetric negatrons who find a false truth to every silver lining or "luck" stat. Yes, I am somewhere in the middle of those two vastly contrasting views in baseball's ever-advancing statistical age. And therein lies my middle-of-the-road, "safe" opinion on the 2013 season of our much heralded, outspoken second baseman.

First, let me address that I think BP had a good season with all things factored into the equation: his age (beyond his prime where stats and abilities begin to decline), his role-change and mindset at the plate, and his wrist injury (which his numbers decreased greatly from that point on). Later in the season Phillips also caught some negative attention after having an on-camera tirade filled with swear words aimed directly at a Reds' news reporter. Writer C. Trent Rosencrans asked Brandon about his decreased OBP and Phillips began ripping into writer with some colorful words about his physicality which came off very immature and childish. All-in-all, BP knocked in 103 runs (a career high) while hitting 18 homers, but batted only .261. His OBP, as pointed out by Rosencrans, had dropped to a dismal .310 after being a stellar .353 just two seasons prior. His slugging percentage dropped, strikeouts increased, and a visible irritability was aroused. His WAR fell off nearly two full wins from 2012, and you can attribute some of that to his errors on defense to go along with the plate deficiencies. Again, it's hard to say what kind of season Brandon would have had if the wrist injury had not taken away his bat speed, pop and power two-thirds through the 2013 campaign. For most of the year, Brandon was near the top of the stat-board for RBI and Avg w/RISP. 

2014 Outlook:
What 2014 will be for Brandon Phillips is a mystery, like it is for everyone, but his definitely has its own intriguing storyline that dates back to the immediate beginning of the Reds' offseason when it was reported that ownership had all intentions to trade him. Within a couple of weeks, rumors were swirling abound and soon actual trade offers began surfacing. Castellini and company could no longer hide this truth from the fans after the Yankees, to the disbelief of the Reds' front office, made it publicly known that they turned down an offer of a Phillips-for-Brett Gardner deal. The Reds had intent to quietly shop Phillips in order to see what offers were out there, but the money owed to BP and the years left on his contract definitely combined for a lack of interest from other teams.

Ownership, who's ire was first drawn after Brandon commented negatively about it publicly in a Cincinnati magazine, was apparently at its wit's end after his "Butt-Tag" incident on the field, and then his public tirade against one of its own writers shortly thereafter. In the end, however, BP is still a Red. Will he take this all in stride and not let the bitter feelings of knowing he was recently dangled trade bait affect his performance in 2014? That's hard to say, and it all comes down to Brandon and how he wants to look at the situation. There is no doubt that he was offended and hurt by the actions of the Reds this offseason. He was on record stating that now more than ever he understands that
professional baseball is a business. Will he use the transgressions he felt he suffered as motivation to reignite his game in 2014? I personally feel he will have a better season than he did in 2013, but not significantly. I think we can expect to see a rise in OBP and a reduction in strikeouts because he won't be asked to switch roles on offense. I also expect that he will be making the spectacular defensive plays he's known for while reducing his errors at the same time.

2014 Prediction - .269 AVG, .325 OBP, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 23 2B, 10 SB


3B - Todd Frazier (R)                                                                                                                             

2013 Stats- .234 AVG, .314 OBP, 19 HR, 73 RBI, 29 2B, 3 3B, 6 SB

2013 Recap:
FlavaFraz was productive once again from an offensive standpoint, albeit with some glaring deficiencies. SuperTodd was quite streaky with the bat in hand in 2013, but he still showed lots of promise. His biggest weakness in his sophomore season was certainly his strikeouts and plate discipline. His OBP decreased from .331 to .314 and his SLG also dropped considerably. On the positive side, Frazier showed such improved glovework at third-base that his predecessor/mentor Scotty Rolen must feel proud. In some cases, Todd's web-gems were so spectacular that it would make you think Brett Lawrie was manning the hot corner in Cincy, and not a 6'3" 220 pound fellow like Frazier.

2014 Outlook:
In 2014, I am expecting Frazier to raise his batting average and his home run and doubles totals. Although he is currently slated to bat 6th, I could easily see him batting 5th in front Ludwick if/when the opportunity presents itself. This means I expect he could also bat 4th on the days when the Reds are facing a lefty starter. Defensively, I feel quite safe with Zack and Todd getting the everyday play on the left-side of the infield. Offensively, I think Todd will manage to increase a few of his numbers across the board, especially if the guys in front of him are getting on base at a decent clip.

2014 Prediction - .255 AVG, .325 OBP, 22 HR, 70 RBI, 27 2B


SS - Zack Cozart (R)                                                                                                                               

2013 Stats- .254 AVG, .284 OBP, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 30 2B, 3 3B, 0 SB

2013 Recap:
Cozart was once again a defensive pleasure and an offensive liability for most of the 2013season. Zack now has two complete MLB seasons under his belt and two things have remained constant: he plays great defense, but he doesn't get on base. Some of this, I feel can be downplayed, as he was moved up an down Dusty Baker's lineup cards so many times it surely became difficult adjusting to any specific roles, especially when just hitting for average was already quite the task. Cozy saw significant time in the two-hole spot in his first full season batting in the pre-Choo leadoff days in Cincinnati. Although he always had Votto batting behind him for solid protection, there was that pressure for Zack to make something happen, and typically with one out (or more, depending on the inning), which often did not pan out. We saw a lot of shifting around of the lineup from Dusty due to the injury of Joey in 2012, which led to Cozart batting in many different spots: leadoff, two-hole, sixth, seventh, and eighth. Baker was typically keen with what to do his slumping players, but injuries and an overall lack of offensive team production probably led to Zack's constant movement within the order and his overall inconsistency at the plate. In 2013, Zack moved around the order a bit as well, just not nearly as much because of the mainstays we had at the top of the Reds' batting order. Cozart saw his strikeout numbers reduce and his batting average increase slightly while mainly batting 2nd/7th in the lineup. However, his home runs, doubles and OBP all had very slight decreases while his RBI total went up significantly.

2014 Outlook:

2014 ought to be a better year for 28-year-old Cozart. In fact, I expect this will be the best campaign he has had yet as a pro. Cozy batted .236 before the All-Star Break and .282 after in the 2013 season. He attributed his late success to an alteration in his approach. If Zack heads into 2014 the way he ended 2013, now in the midst of his "prime years," I feel he will make a difference for this team on the offensive side of the field. And with Bryan Price at the helm, I expect to see more running from this ballclub, including Zack, who was once a notable runner as a prospect but has only stolen a total of four bases in 300 Major League games. The biggest hurdle may be for Zack to finally break over that .300 OBP hump which he has yet to do in his first two full seasons. With some confidence going into 2014 from where he left off, some stability within the order, and some luck in the BABIP department, I feel this can be Cozy's first real productive season from both sides of the field.

2014 Prediction - .260 AVG, .305 OBP, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 25 2B, 10 SB