Friday, May 17, 2013

Reds Breakdown: 2013, One Quarter Into the Season

It Takes A Little From Everybody and Then Some: Analyzing Your Redlegs' Performances After 1/4 of the 2013 Season


By Ryan Bramwell

Team Stats

  • Record: 24-16 (.600)
    • 2nd in NL Central: Cardinals 26-13 (Best record in MLB)
    • 4th best in MLB: 1. STL (26-13), 2. TEX (26-14), 3. NYY (25-15), 4. CIN (24-16)
    • Home (16-6), Road (8-10)
    • Runs Scored (190-1st NL), Runs Allowed (150-4th NL); Run Differential (+40-2nd NL)
    • Streak: W5, 9 wins in 11 games
  • Batting: NL Rankings
    • Runs - 1st (190)
    • Batting Avg - 7th (.251)
    • On-Base % - 1st (.335)
    • Slugging % - T-7th (.394)
    • OPS % - 5th (.729)
    • HRs - 8th (39)
    • RBI - 2nd (180)
  • Pitching: NL Rankings
    • Runs Allowed - 4th (150)
    • ERA - 3rd (3.45)
    • Quality Starts - 6th (23)
    • Walks: 3rd (104)
    • Strikeouts: 1st (336)
    • BA Against: 4th (.243)
Player Stats

  • Batting: Team Leaders
    • Batting Avg: Votto (.327), Choo (.322), Phillips (.286), Bruce (.264)
    • On-Base %: Choo (.465), Votto (.457), Phillips (.329), Frazier (.318), Bruce (.310)
    • Slugging %: Choo (.589), Votto (.473), Phillips (.468), Frazier (.420), Bruce (.411)
    • OPS %: Choo (1.054), Votto (.931), Phillips (.797), Frazier (.738), Bruce (.721)
    • Doubles: Bruce (13), Choo (10), Phillips (10), Votto (8)
    • Home Runs: Choo (9), Phillips (6), Frazier (6), Cozart (5), Votto (4)
    • RBI: Phillips (34), Frazier (25), Bruce (21), Choo (19), Cozart (19), Votto (17)
    • Walks: Votto (34), Choo (27), Frazier (16), Paul (12)
    • Stolen Bases: Choo (4), Frazier (3), Lutz (2), Heisey (2)
    • Offensive WAR: Choo (2.6), Votto (1.5), Phillips (0.7), Frazier (0.6)
  • Pitching: Team Leaders
    • Innings Pitched: Arroyo (52.2), Bailey (51.1), Latos (50.1), Leake (48.1), Cingrani (28.0)
    • ERA: Cingrani (2.89), Latos (3.04), Bailey (3.51), Leake (3.72), Arroyo (3.76)
    • WHIP: Cingrani (0.96), Arroyo (1.14), Bailey (1.15), Latos (1.27), Leake (1.49)
    • Quality Starts: Latos (6), Arroyo (5), Bailey (5), Leake (3), Cingrani (2), Cueto (2)
    • Strikeouts: Bailey (52), Latos (47), Cingrani (37), Leake (34), Arroyo (30)
    • Walks: Cingrani (7), Arroyo (8), Leake (13), Latos (14), Bailey (14)
    • Home Runs Allowed: Bailey (4), Leake (5), Latos (5), Arroyo (6), Cingrani (6)
    • WAR: Latos (0.8), Bailey (0.8), LeCure (0.8), Cueto (0.8), Arroyo (0.7), Cingrani (0.7)
    • Saves: Chapman (8), Hoover (2)
    • Holds: LeCure (5), Broxton (5), Marshall (5)

Reds Notes

  • MVP (Through 40 Games)
    • Shin-Soo Choo:
      • .322/.465/.589, OPS 1.054, 9 HR, 19 RBI, 10 2B, 4 SB, 27 BB, 2.6 OWAR
      • The addition of Choo for 2013 has made the Reds one of the most potent offensive teams in baseball.  The Reds finished 2012 with an OBP of .315, which was good for 12th out of 16 teams in the NL.  Currently the Reds rank 1st in the league in that category, mostly in part to Choo's .465 OBP and Votto's .457 mark.
      • If the Reds could get a healthy Ludwick back and batting cleanup, then a lineup of Choo, Phillips, and Votto at the top-of-the-order could prove to wreak devastation on its opponents.  But it all begins with OBP machine Shin-Soo Choo.
  • MVP Honorable Mention
    • Brandon Phillips:
      • .286/.329/.468 slash line with an OPS of .797
      • 6 home runs, 10 doubles
      • 34 RBI - Leads the NL
      • BP was slotted to be the two-hole hitter in an offense-rich lineup for the 2013 Reds.  After an injury to cleanup hitter Ryan Ludwick on Opening Day sent the power-hitting left-fielder to DL, Brandon was called upon to be the man to drive in Reds baserunners...and he has done it with aplomb.  Phillips leads the NL in RBI and is currently on pace for 28 home runs and 138 runs batted in.  Simply put, BP is getting it done.
  • Rotation Studs
    • Mat Latos (Thru 41 Games)
      • 4-0, 2.91 ERA, 51 SO in 58.2 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 7 QS/9 GS
      • Big Mat has been nothing short of stellar in 2013.  So much for his notorious slow starts to begin new seasons, Mat has been impressive since his first outing on the mound.
      • Latos has had three wins stripped away from him due to the only three blown saves the Reds have had this season. Yet, he is still on pace for 16 wins and 200+ strikeouts to boot.
      • There was much concern over the fact that Mat is a "fly-ball pitcher" when the Reds traded the farm to obtain him.  Surely, GABP would not be the safe haven that PETCO Park was in San Diego for his style of pitching.  However, there has been a trend of a lot of ground ball outs in his recent starts. 
      • The big guy boasts a total win-loss record of 18-4 since he joined the club in 2012.
    • Tony Cingrani
      •  2-0, 2.89 ERA, 37 SO in 28.0 IP, 0.96 WHIP, 37/7 K/BB Ratio
      • Tony C. has been ridiculously good at the Major League level and has a LOT of people talking.
      • Cingrani is the only lefthander on the Reds staff and the first since Dontrelle Willis in 2011, and the first since Travis Wood before him.   
      • He doesn't have a lot of different pitches in his repertoire, but he does have a variety of fastball types that he can locate with a lot of movement and a ton of velocity. 
    •  Rest of the Staff
      • Bailey (2-3, 3.51), Leake (3-2, 3.72), Arroyo (3-4, 3.76) 
      • Every member of the Reds rotation have an ERA below league-average of 3.81.  And 3.81 is nothing to scoff at, as it is a relatively remarkable number for 15 teams and their rotations to average. 
      • Homer has come into his own after a breakout 2012,  and he continues to progress and even pitch well at home.
      • Arroyo is still a workhorse and a skilled craftsman.  It is truly fun to watch him pick and place, and bend and move the ball all around the strike zone at will when he is on his A-game. 
      • Leake had a few bad starts early on but then took a turn for the better and hasn't really looked back since he made that turn.  Currently, the spotlight is shining bright on Mikey as the Reds brass and the media are watching closely as he and Tony Cingrani vie over the fifth spot in a super-talented rotation.
  • Bullpen Beast
    • Sam LeCure
      • 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .175 BAA, 19 SO in 18 IP, 5 Holds
      • LeCure has been the most reliable source out of Dusty's bullpen so far in 2013.  This shouldn't be surprising as Sammy has been a trustworthy, go-to-guy for a couple of seasons now. 
      • LeCure is able to come into a game in any situation in any inning and get the job done.  He has the ability to move the ball around the zone like Bronson does, but he does it with more velocity. 
      • In 2012, LeCure only allowed five out of 31 inherited runners score on his watch.  So far in 2013, no inherited runners have crossed home plate.
  • Injuries
    • Ryan Ludwick
      • Suffered a torn right labrum after sliding safely into third base headfirst on Opening Day against the Angels.  He drew two walks in his only two at-bats that day. 
      • Ludwick said he had just began recently really feeling comfortable at the plate and seeing the ball well near the end of Spring Training. 
      • He is scheduled to come back shortly after the All-Star break.
    • Johnny Cueto
      •  Suffered a strained right lat in his third start of the season back in mid-April.  Cueto was pitching superbly before the injury.  Johnny was 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 17.1 innings pitched. 
      • Cueto had a setback during his rehab and once again had trouble with an oblique muscle, but recently he has recovered fully and is coming off a tremendous rehab start. 
      • Cueto is due to join the rotation and make his first start since the injury on Monday, May 20.
    • Ryan Hanigan
      • The Irish Mitt was activated recently after a stint on the DL with an oblique strain.  While being treated for the oblique, it was noted that Hanigan's thumb had also been sore which may have been another attribute to his poor performance at the plate.
      • With Hanigan back, the Reds can send fan-favorite Corky Miller back to the minors. 
      • Ryan has been one of the most disciplined hitters in the box over the last couple of seasons for Cincinnati and typically sits among the Reds' top OBP guys because of that keen eye. 
      • Hanigan is also known as a great defensive catcher, superb game-caller for his pitchers, and a guy who throws out a hefty percentage of would-be-base-stealers.  The Reds will need these attributes from Hanny again while they also rely on their high-potential catcher product Devin Mesoraco to continue to get better and better.
      • In 13 at-bats since returning, Hanigan has five hits for a .385 BA.  He has also drawn two walks in that span.  He had only three hits in 38 at-bats prior to the DL stint.
    • Chris Heisey
      •  Chris injured his hamstring back on April 27, and then "suffered a setback" in one of his recent rehab games that has pushed his return time back until at least the Reds' homestand that begins on May 24.
      • Hesiey wasn't playing so hot before he left: .173/.195/.293, and .498 OPS, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 2B, 2 SB. 
      • Xavier Paul, Donald Lutz, and Derrick Robinson have been filling in the outfield spots capably since Heisey's injury.  However, Heisey's right-handedness may play in his favor anyway since Baker's bench is thick with southpaws as it is.  I couldn't see Dusty keeping Lutz or Robinson over Heisey no matter what the statistics show anyhow.  I guess we will find out.
    • Sean Marshall
      • After sitting out essentially since before the season began, Marshall was activated to the 25-man roster on April 26.  Sean had a shoulder injury that kept him out that first month of 2013.
      • Since his much needed return, Marshall has been exactly what Reds fans expect as he has shut down his competition.
      • He has recorded five holds in just eight appearances while giving up just one earned run.
  • Superbly Filling the Voids
    • Xavier Paul
      • .261/.378/.406, and .784 OPS, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 4 2B, 13 BB
      • XP gets on base at a .378 clip.  He drives in runs and delivers big hits when the Reds seem to need them most.  Paul is clutch and patient at the dish. 
    • Tony Cingrani
      •  2-0, 2.89 ERA, 37 SO in 28.0 IP, 0.96 WHIP, 37/7 K/BB Ratio
      • See 'Rotation Studs' for more info
    • Derrick Robinson
      • Seven seasons in the minors before finally making the grade and getting the call to the Show.  Yet, the speedy, switch-hitting Derrick Robinson is still only 25 years old. 
      • In 23 at-bats, Robinson has a slash line of .304/.448/.304, and an OPS of .753. 
      • He has compiled seven hits and six walks in those plate appearances.  He plays above-average defense and can run like the dickens.
  • The Upcoming Big Decision
    • Mike Leake or Tony Cingrani?
      • Leake: 3-2, 3.72 ERA, 48.1 IP, 34/13 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP, .307 BAA
      • Cingrani: 2-0, 2.89 ERA, 28.0 IP, 37/7 K/BB, 0.96 WHIP, .202 BAA 






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