The 2013 baseball season is over. Well, at least for our Redlegs it is. September started with a bang and the boys got hot. They took three of four from the Cardinals in St. Louis and then swept the mighty Dodgers in Cincy immediately afterward. Billy Hamilton was called up to the majors and the sense of impending excitement could be cut with a knife.
Excitement about foot speed. Not pitch speed, not home run power. Excitement about watching a player run the bases. Like most other fans of this great sport, I had forgotten how much more exciting the game can be to watch when you factor in this important yet fundamental element. Especially when your team runs as poorly and as little as the Reds do; then suddenly, you have Billy "The Bolt" Hamilton. It is truly something to see...just so long as you don't blink, or else you may not get to see it. All in all, in just thirteen games played, Hamilton would steal 13 bases in 14 attempts while posting a .429 OBP.Ahem. Moving on. Despite the big start to September and the huge series wins against big-time opponents like the Cards and Dodgers, the Reds began cool off. Then, rather than the wheels falling off themselves, the Reds dismantled the entire team vehicle using bats, balls, gloves, bonehead plays on both ends of the field, mismanagement, and in the end, what just seemed like self-loathing deterioration. The Redlegs were 14-7 in September before losing the final two games at home to the lowly Mets. 14-9. Then, still at home, they were swept by the Pirates in the most important series of the 2013 season. 14-12 in the month of September. One game Wild Card playoff to determine who goes on to the NL Division Series. Home field advantage goes to Pittsburgh. PNC Park is absoutely rocking, and it should be. Latos is injured. Cueto gets the start over Mike Leake. Johnny gets shelled early and the Pirate crowd goes crazy. Liriano shuts down the already-turned-off Reds offense. Pirates win, Reds go home. Simple as that.
Now, let's go back. During that time when the I mentioned the Reds were cooling off. They were getting complacent, in other words. After fighting so hard to win six out of seven games against division leading teams back-to-back, they then went on to lose four out of six to the Cubs and the Brewers. That hurt us. However, they were lucky enough to play the Astros before season's end and pick up three more victories there. Next, the Reds would continue to impress by stealing two of three from the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Full steam ahead. Series win in the opener against the Mets. Then...no more steam. None. That win against the Mets was the 90th of the season, and it was the last. The Redlegs would "play" five more regular season games and not win a single one of them. When everything was on the line. They would have one last shot at redemption in the single-elimination playoff game, but you could almost sense it was too late. There was no sense of urgency on or within this team for quite some time. This issue had been talked about ad nauseum on local radio shows and other areas in the media. Dusty Baker's lack of a sense of urgency.
Dusty Baker. As of Friday, he has been removed of his position as manager of the Reds. Walt Jocketty has fired Dusty Baker after six seasons at the helm. Baker had just signed a two-year extension at the end of the 2012 season, meaning he had another year left on his current contract with the Reds. This didn't matter. It doesn't matter. Owner Bob Castellini has seen enough. General Manager Walt Jocketty has seen enough.
From what most of us know, have seen, read or heard, Dusty Baker is a great guy. He is a solid manager with a specific style mainly using an "old-school" approach to back his reasonings. Unfortunately, this style is not getting it done for the Reds players. Most of the talent on this team is now in their prime. Dusty was there to groom them as they came up and got adjusted to life in the big league. They needed that. A guy who had been in their shoes before. This guy, Dusty, speaks fluent Spanish, is super-cultured, well-read, a blues music enthusiast, treats you like a son, treats you like a teammate, gives you nothing but consistent faith and belief. Dusty. A "Player's Manager". Someone who has done what you are doing and has gone what you are going through. What an amazingly, comfortable start to the inside world of professional baseball it must have been for some guys like Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and others. Brandon Phillips seemingly had a father-son relationship with Baker over the last several years. But therein lies the problem. Phillips, Bruce, and all the talent...they are getting older. They aren't learning from Dusty anymore. They are playing for him. And his game-calling just isn't that good. His line-up cards are not good. His archaic use of the bullpen and other positions within the game are just mind-numbingly aggravating. But you love him, at least I tell myself I do, because you know the players love him. I tell myself, in what have become my very own antiquated phrases, that the players are happy playing under Dusty. So, surely they will play better. Well, I know this really isn't the case, and so does every single other person out there who watches or plays the game. Players need to be held accountable for their mistakes. They need to be challenged. They need to be treated like the adults they are. They need to be utilized like the paid employees they are. Dusty is fun. Baseball is fun. Losing in the playoffs year after year because of the same mistakes is not fun.
At some point in time, we need to realize that Dusty Baker is a tremendous manager for the youngsters in the game. For those who are making that transition. Maybe it's Dusty, mostly who needs to realize this. He has had all the talent in the world, and he has had it several times. How many times can we say that his teams have failed? How many times can we say that he's been unlucky? To be honest, I haven't heard anyone say that last sentence.
He had the Giants in 2002, loaded with talent at the peak of their prime. And he possessed on his roster quite possibly the greatest baseball player to ever play the game. Barry Bonds, his .370 batting average, his .582 on-base percentage, 46 home runs, 68 intentional walks, 1.381 OPS, were numbers that will never be able to be looked at without reading over a second-time and asking oneself if they were possible. Jeff Kent was a monster at second base and at the plate. Benito Santiago behind the plate. My man, Reggie Sanders, was still giving it all he had. On the mound, Russ Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Jason Schmidt and Kirk Reuter set the stage. The Giants had the championship in their grasp and they let it slip away to the Angels. It was the closest both Bonds and Baker would ever come to a World Series.
Then, there was the Cubs in 2003. Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou leading the team offensively while their number two and three pitchers were possibly the best two-pitcher combo in all of baseball. That combo of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood combined for 32 wins and 511 strikeouts. Dusty's old-school, faith-driven mentality also allowed rookies Wood and Prior to throw 122 and 126 pitches per start respectively. What happened in the 2003 NLCS was just terrible. First, let's get it out of the way: there was Steve Bartman...and that horrendous inning that seemed to go on forever after Stevie went after that ball. Next, let us not forget, Dusty did his part in that series too: Allowing Wood to stay in and pitch in the decisive Game 7 after giving up seven runs? What?
And now we move on to Dusty and his years with my Reds. 2010 - We made it! I had to wait 15 years to see the Reds get back to the post-season. I was eleven when this happened the last time. This time around, I was 26. Yeesh. However, in a flash, it was over. The mighty Phillies swept the Redlegs in humilating fashion including a Roy Halladay No-Hitter. This team was young and inexperienced. They weren't ready, and I cannot blame Dusty for anything here. I was just so happy they made it. 2012 - With a chip on their collective shoulders, the Reds end the regular season with 97 wins and head to San Francisco where they take the first two games over the Giants on the road despite losing their ace, Johnny Cueto, to injury in the first inning. They head back to Cincy needing to win only one game to move on to the NLCS for the first time since 1995. They can't do it. The Reds lose three consecutive games and go home once again with that bitter taste of defeat and unfinished business. 2013 - Reds win 90 games for third time in four seasons. The Reds then commence to lose the final six games of the year, including the one-game NL Wild Card playoff against the Pirates. Dusty Baker is fired. See above for more details.
So, back to the original topic: Where do we go from here?
- Who do the Reds hire as their new manager for 2014 (and beyond)?
- Do they hire from within the organization?
- Bryan Price
- Jim Riggleman
- Chris Speier
- Joe Morgan
- Do they look elsewhere for the perfect fit for their new skipper?
- Davey Johnson
- Brad Ausmus
- Barry Larkin
- Joe Girardi
- Eduardo Perez
- David Bell
- Jose Oquendo
- A.J. Hinch
- Dave Martinez
- Torey Lovullo
- Tim Wallach
- Lloyd McClendon
- What other Reds coaches jobs' are in jeopardy after this season?
- Brook Jacoby?
- Mark Berry?
- Billy Hatcher?
- If Bob Castellini is as serious as he really seems to be, what moves can we expect will be made in the offseason in regard to player personnel?
- Would he be willing to trade:
- Brandon Phillips?
- Homer Bailey?
- Mat Latos?
- More of the farm system?
- Will the Reds make new deals with the following players:
- Bronson Arroyo?
- Shin-Soo Choo?
- Ryan Ludwick?
- Will the Reds work out new extensions for the following players:
- Mat Latos?
- Homer Bailey?
As I read through posts about offseason reconstruction on Redlegnation.com, I found one that I think is super savvy and incredibly plausible:
1. Hire a manager, but more importantly than that, ensure that all of the things that we now know with regard to analytics will be seen on the field. This includes defensive positioning, lineup construction, platoon realities, pitch selection, etc. If this means that a “new school” guy is hired, then that is fine. If it means that an “old school” guy is hired but, prior to hiring, he agrees to (a la Hurdle) to fully embrace the numbers. Bryan Price may be the right guy. However, I would prefer to lock him up in his present position (and perhaps pay a premium to do so) and give him full dominion over pitching. It would not bother me if he had a longer contract than the manager of the team.
2. Trade Chapman to the Yankees for Brett Gardner and a solid prospect. A Gardner/Hamilton/Ludwick CF/LF split in the outfield would likely leave the team with better overall production next year than it had out of these same two positions. Gardner could play LF against RHP (with BHam in CF). Ludwick could play LF against LHP with either Gardner and BHam in CF. Plus, this means that Ludwick would be able to PH in the later innings if a LHP is brought in. Gardner is going to be a free agent after next year, so he is essentially Choo-lite (this also means that the Reds are more likely to get a solid prospect in addition to Gardner). Offer him a qualifying offer after the season and gladly take the draft pick. Ludwick is off the books after ’14 as well. So, at that point, it’s tabula rasa in LF.
3. Thank Choo for his service and take the draft pick. It is time to restock the farm.
4. Sign Michael Young. Plan on Michael Young getting 500 plate appearances. Spot him at 3b, SS, 2b, and (rarely) at 1b (Joey should take a day off from time to time, as should BP). He will help to fill the “Rolen void” that was apparently missing this year. Also, I guess Jack Hannahan will make a million bucks to play at Louisville next year.
5. Totally abandon the role of closer. Sign a few injury/rehab projects (like Grilli and Gregg and Nathan and like happens every year) that could potentially be solid additions. Otherwise, move forward with Hoover, LeCure, Parra (I believe he is a FA, so don’t overpay), Marshall, Broxton, Simon, etc. and a manager who understands that an out is an out is an out.
6. Hand the starting catching job to Mesoraco. There will be no more “personal catcher” situations. If your name is Greg Maddux, you get a personal catcher. If not, throw the dang ball and shut up. After ’14, there will be some degree of finality regarding the catching situation either way. Hanigan will be gone after ’14, so reevaluate after the season.
7. I’m torn when it comes to the rotation. Of course, I would still consider handing the ball to Chapman, but I am afraid that that ship may have sailed. Also, the possibility of getting a Choo replacement and a prospect is too good to pass up at this point. As for Latos, approach him with a team friendly deal and see if he will bite. The same is true, to a lesser extent (the deal would have to be more team friendly), with Bailey. If Bailey doesn’t bite, explore a trade with someone, perhaps Texas. Try to get a two solid prospects out of Bailey. If he doesn’t warrant two prospects, then give him qualifying offer after the year and take the draft pick. So, next year’s rotation would look like Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Cingrani, and Leake. If Bailey is dealt, then give Bronson a qualifying offer. If he takes it, fine. If not, take the draft pick and find a stop gap.
To me, none of this seems too much to ask. And with a new manager running the game, any and all things are possible.
