Bram's Blog

Sunday, April 20, 2014

2014 Reds Season Preview: The Starting Outfield

Recaps & Outlooks for the Reds Starting Outfield

Ryan Ludwick (R)

2013 Stats - .240 AVG, .293 OBP, 2 HR, 12 RBI *(38 Games/129 At Bats -Due to Injury)

2013 Recap:
Luddy was injured on Opening Day last season and didn't return to the lineup until August 12th. He was without his power and probably not ready to see live action on the field just yet. But the Reds didn't make a move for a big bat at the trade deadline like some of us had hoped and Ludwick was relied upon to be good as new when he returned, which he was not.

2014 Outlook:
Looking ahead to 2014, we can expect that Ryan, who will turn 36 in July, will be giving all he's got to give on the offensive side of the ball for the Reds. I am expecting a productive year out of his bat, albeit not like his 2012 season of 26 homers and 80 runs batted in. On the contrary, I don't expect much from his glove out in left field. He's a subpar defender, and at his age, covering the range in most ballparks is going to be a cause for concern. Luddy still has the ability to make a fashionable play every once in a great while, and as a veteran, he will make more "heady" plays than he will fashionable; however, I expect to see some quality time split with Chris Heisey or even Reds newcomer Roger Bernadina.

2014 Prediction - .255 AVG, .320 OBP, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 20 2B

Billy Hamilton (S)

2013 Stats - .368 AVG, .429 OBP, 2 2B, 7 Hits/19 At-Bats, 13-for-14 SBs

2013 Recap:
To put it in an unoriginal and hackneyed way, Billy Hamilton stole the show when he was called up to the Big Leagues last September. While a prospect in the minor leagues, "B-Ham" was reveled nation-wide because of his impeccable base-stealing abilities. In 2012, between High-A and Double A baseball, Hamilton stole a record 155 bases. That is 10 more than the previous minor league stolen base record holder Vince Coleman's total. And it is 25 more than the Major League single-season record held by Rickey Henderson, baseball's all-time steals leader. Hamilton's foot speed brings talk and clamor among fans and analysts in such a way that it creates folklore-like imagery when his stories of speed are discussed and debated.  You hear stories about the sound of Walter Johnson's fastball, Babe Ruth's power, Mantle's 'crack-of-the-bat' from both sides of the plate, Mays' superlative five-tools, etc, etc. In an age where social media and 24-hour sports news networks dominate the medium, it is nearly impossible to come across and/or create one of those legendary, almost mythical sports figures. Yet, somehow, Billy Hamilton is coming pretty darn close.

In 14 games, "Billy Bases" stole 13 bags in 14 attempts. Dusty Baker slotted Hamilton to start or sub in games where the matchups and scenarios were opportunistic and heavily in Billy's favor. Because of this, we saw in just 22 plate appearances, what a confident Billy can do. Hamilton batted .368 with a .429 OBP, getting seven hits in 19 at-bats. Not to mention, he stole 13 bases, walked twice, and he hit two doubles in those plate appearances. This success was quite contrary to what Reds fans were expecting, as Billy's 2013 season in Triple A wasn't as fruitful at the plate as his previous two years in lower-level minors. In 2012, he batted .311 with a superb .410 OBP. But when we was advanced to Triple A, Billy couldn't hit or get on base anywhere close to the same rate, as he batted .256 with a subpar .306 OBP. Again, though, Hamilton thrived in the spots in which Dusty Baker slotted him when he was called up in September, giving Reds fans a collective sigh of relief as to what kind of offense they could expect at the Big League level.

2014 Outlook:
After the Reds failed to re-sign the on-base machine that was Shin-Soo Choo, they decided to promote from within rather than look to the market or make a trade for a new centerfielder. Many analysts and fans enjoyed playing devil's advocate upon hearing this news, asking questions like: Is Billy really ready for The Show? September of 2013 was a super-small sample size with pitching matchups in Billy's favor, do you think he can actually hit anywhere near that level playing full-time? Why didn't we move Billy to shortstop (his original position) and re-sign Choo or someone else for less money?  Won't the Reds regress substantially on offense with the departure of Choo and an unproven replacement filling his spot? These were all asked, or more aptly, were complained about in some form or another.

It's true, a lot is being handed over to B-Ham in his rookie season. He knows he won't get on base like Choo, but he also knows he doesn't have to be successful the same ways Choo was. Hamilton is noted as a supremely quick learner, and he has taken to learning centerfield optimally. In fact, some would already call him a plus-defender in the outfield, with the only lacking area being his arm strength. Hamilton's speed and range make him a much more potent threat on defense than he ever was when playing shortstop. Being able to get to short-sinking line drives or fly balls hit deep in any ballpark gives Hamilton a major advantage over Choo. And if he can't hit that well, or heaven forbid, at all, then expect him to make plenty of appearances for pinch-running and defensive substitutions. Even in that scenario, the worst possible scenario where he doesn't hit, Billy can still rack up just as much WAR as Choo did (4.2) last season just by pinch running, defensive subbing, and getting the occasional start. My prediction for "The Man of Steal" in 2014? I think we get the Billy Hamilton that Triple A saw. We see a guy who doesn't get on base as much as your prototypical leadoff hitter should, but he makes more of his on-base chances count than anyone else in the game. I certainly foresee 2-5 homers, and I expect to see at least two home runs of the inside-the-park variety. Fun!

2014 Prediction: .250 AVG, .295 OBP, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 65 SB, 25 2Bs, 8 3Bs

Jay Bruce (L)

2013 Stats - .262 AVG, .329 OBP, 30 HR, 109 RBI, 43 2Bs, 7 SBs

2013 Recap:
Bruuuuuuce! Jay Bruce continued to progress in every facet in the 2013 campaign. The upward trend of Jay's abilities got him some nods from the baseball writers as he received votes for the NL MVP and took home the Silver Slugger award for NL right fielders, both accomplishments were received for the second consecutive season. Not akin to the previous two seasons, Jables finally got over the 100 RBI mark, after notching 97 and 99 in 2012 and 2013 respectively. His 109 RBI in 2014 came, in part, from knocking 30 home runs, which made for the third straight year he has 30 or more homers. However, after being selected to the NL All Star team in 2012 and 2013, he surprisingly missed out on that opportunity last season. Bruce also tallied 43 doubles which was good for third in the NL, trailing Yadier Molina's 44 and Matt Carpenter's monstrous 55 two-baggers.

Aside from all the positive statistics, Bruce did have his ups and downs in 2013. Jay has been pegged as a streaky player, and that isn't a false assessment. When he is on, he is one of the toughest outs in the league. When he isn't on, well, he becomes a strikeout machine and seems incapable of breaking his atrocious slumps. Jay struck out 185 times in 2013, 30 more times than in 2012 (in about 60 more plate appearances), a new personal high. His on-base percentage, however, remained near his career level at .330, which is certainly a positive. In the field, Bruce is still a well-known for his left cannon, which is respected among his player peers. Two years removed from his wrist injury, Jay was able to fully extend himself in the field, to which he marked a positive defensive WAR rating according to Baseball-Reference.com. Overall, Bruce notched a 4.9 Wins Above Replacement rating in 2013.

2014 Outlook:
If the Beaumont Bomber continues his upward trends, then I feel, like many Reds fans, that he has the capability to receive even more votes in the NL MVP voting in 2014. If Jables' streaks at the plate can stretch for longer periods and his slumps can last considerably shorter, then the once highly-touted prospect may finally accomplish what all Reds fans assumed he could...and be a bonafide superstar in the MLB. With a solid performance from those hitting in front of him in the lineup, Jay Bruce could once again knock in 100 runs. Now that new manager Bryan Price is batting him directly behind OBP-monster Joey Votto, there is no denying that he could knock in 115+, not to mention hit his usual 30+ homers. The x-factor for Jay is lowering his strikeout rate and cutting down his slump lengths. If he can raise his batting average to .275+, then look out, because Jay Bruce will be in the MVP race when September rolls around. In conclusion, my thoughts are that Jables will continue that upward trend he's been building and be the most overall productive Redleg in 2014.

2014 Prediction: .278 AVG, .330 OBP, 37 HRs, 110 RBI, 40 2Bs, 10 SBs

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

2014 Reds Season Preview: The Starting Infield

Recaps & Outlooks for the Reds Starting Infield

C - Devin Mesoraco (R)

2013 Stats - .238 AVG, .287 OBP, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 13 2B, 61/24 K/BB, .993 FLD%

2013 Recap:
In 323 at-bats, Devin Mesoraco finally had the opportunity to prove his worth at the next level, mainly due to Ryan Hanigan's injuries and major lack of offensive production in 2013. Devin has been expected by many to be an All-Star capable catcher when he reaches his prime. Remember, Jocketty traded away switch-hitting catcher Yasmani Grandal (along with Yonder Alonso and Brad Boxberger) instead of Mesoraco in the deal with the Padres for Mat Latos. When looking at Grandal's 2012 performance in San Diego it's hard to not be a little miffed about trading him away while keeping Mesoraco. However, if you recall, Grandal received a 50-game suspension from MLB after being connected with the Biogenesis steroid scandal. And since his return, Grandal has not been so productive. That doesn't mean I don't think he will ever be productive without the aid of steroids again, but it is a major blemish on his record that will take some consistency in numbers to quiet the doubters. On the other end of the equation there is Devin Mesoraco, who has yet to prove himself and live up to the hype that surrounded him when he was drafted 15th overall in the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft. Albeit, Devin hasn't had everyday playing time yet, even by catcher standards (last season he had a career high 323 ABs in 103 GP). His predecessor, Ryan Hanigan, was a handler of pitchers, trusted game caller, tremendous pitch framer, who could throw out base-stealers often. Not to mention, up until the 2013 campaign, Hanigan could make up for his lack of power and batting average by getting on-base at a high clip. Devin proved he could handle the variety of pitchers offered from the Reds' staff, and he showed us he could hit at times. The offense was more miss than hit, but we still witnessed many positives.

2014 Outlook:
When all was said and done in 2013, Mesoraco's performance left a little to be desired. But the optimists will say given more at-bats and everyday play, he could blossom into what has been expected of him. Devin is only 23 years old and has been handed the keys to the full-time catching position. It is now, in 2014, when I expect to see the real version of Devin Mesoraco to arise. I don't expect an expansive improvement on all fronts, and neither should any of us, but I do believe he will have formidable up-ticks in most statistical categories.

2014 Prediction: .245 AVG, .300 OBP, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 20 2B

1B - Joey Votto (L)

2013 Stats- .305 AVG, .435 OBP, 24 HR, 73 RBI, 30 2B, 3 3B, 6 SB, 135/138 K/BB

2013 Recap:

Joey Votto once again led the Reds in many offensive categories, namely walks and on-base percentage, for yet another season. Votto's name has become synonymous in baseball with the terms "walks" and "on-base percentage." He freely trotted from home to first 138 times in 2013, which led the majors handily, with teammate Shin-Soo Choo the closest behind him at 112. His OBP was a monstrous .435, which led the NL for the fourth consecutive season, and was second in all of baseball to back-to-back AL MVP Miguel Cabrera's .442 clip. Despite the fact that Joey was on-base nearly half the time last season, many analysts and baseball fans still complained about his ability to drive in runs. Joey's 73 RBI total was, in fact, a small number for the third batter in the lineup. However, the Reds had two other players with over 100 RBI, which was in part to Votto's ability to get on base ahead of them.

2014 Outlook:
Joseph Daniel Votto will always be an extremely tough out at the plate. He will draw walks, get hits, and get on base at a ridiculous rate. The questions being asked about Votto for 2014 are: Will he hit for power again (say, in the area of 30 HRs) with a fully recovered knee? Will he knock in more runs and appease the analysts? Can he be more aggressive, swing at more strikes, draw less walks, and therefore, be even more effective with the talents he possesses? Who knows? If Joey changes his approach and mindset at the plate then it will be because Joey wants to do so. Sure, I will admit that on occasion I would like to see Votto take more hacks at pitches, especially in specific scenarios when the Reds are in dire need of a run. Additionally, it is cringe-inducing to watch Joey take a walk when, aside from Bruce, the lineup following him drops off significantly in offensive prowess. I expect Votto, in a perfectly healthy season, to up his home run and runs-batted-in totals. I think he will hit for more doubles than anything, which will increase his SLG along with that slight increase in home runs I am predicting. I do have faith in him to be more swing-aggressive, but doing so without hampering his value. In the end, really, how much does it matter? I trust Joey to be Vottomatic, living up that moniker, by knowing more about hitting a baseball than anyone since his idol Ted Williams.

2014 Prediction - .325 AVG, .420 OBP, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 42 2B, 8 SB

2B - Brandon Phillips (R)

2013 Stats- .261 AVG, .310 OBP, 18 HR, 103 RBI, 24 2B, 2 3B, 5 SB

2013 Recap:

BP was very satisfied batting cleanup for the injured Ryan Ludwick all season in 2013. Some may take a look at his basic numbers and tell you he had a productive season at the plate, while anyone who delves into stats will tell you it was actually his least productive season in Cincinnati. My opinion would fall somewhere in between those old-school, base stat optimistics and those new-age, sabremetric negatrons who find a false truth to every silver lining or "luck" stat. Yes, I am somewhere in the middle of those two vastly contrasting views in baseball's ever-advancing statistical age. And therein lies my middle-of-the-road, "safe" opinion on the 2013 season of our much heralded, outspoken second baseman.

First, let me address that I think BP had a good season with all things factored into the equation: his age (beyond his prime where stats and abilities begin to decline), his role-change and mindset at the plate, and his wrist injury (which his numbers decreased greatly from that point on). Later in the season Phillips also caught some negative attention after having an on-camera tirade filled with swear words aimed directly at a Reds' news reporter. Writer C. Trent Rosencrans asked Brandon about his decreased OBP and Phillips began ripping into writer with some colorful words about his physicality which came off very immature and childish. All-in-all, BP knocked in 103 runs (a career high) while hitting 18 homers, but batted only .261. His OBP, as pointed out by Rosencrans, had dropped to a dismal .310 after being a stellar .353 just two seasons prior. His slugging percentage dropped, strikeouts increased, and a visible irritability was aroused. His WAR fell off nearly two full wins from 2012, and you can attribute some of that to his errors on defense to go along with the plate deficiencies. Again, it's hard to say what kind of season Brandon would have had if the wrist injury had not taken away his bat speed, pop and power two-thirds through the 2013 campaign. For most of the year, Brandon was near the top of the stat-board for RBI and Avg w/RISP.

2014 Outlook:
What 2014 will be for Brandon Phillips is a mystery, like it is for everyone, but his definitely has its own intriguing storyline that dates back to the immediate beginning of the Reds' offseason when it was reported that ownership had all intentions to trade him. Within a couple of weeks, rumors were swirling abound and soon actual trade offers began surfacing. Castellini and company could no longer hide this truth from the fans after the Yankees, to the disbelief of the Reds' front office, made it publicly known that they turned down an offer of a Phillips-for-Brett Gardner deal. The Reds had intent to quietly shop Phillips in order to see what offers were out there, but the money owed to BP and the years left on his contract definitely combined for a lack of interest from other teams.

Ownership, who's ire was first drawn after Brandon commented negatively about it publicly in a Cincinnati magazine, was apparently at its wit's end after his "Butt-Tag" incident on the field, and then his public tirade against one of its own writers shortly thereafter. In the end, however, BP is still a Red. Will he take this all in stride and not let the bitter feelings of knowing he was recently dangled trade bait affect his performance in 2014? That's hard to say, and it all comes down to Brandon and how he wants to look at the situation. There is no doubt that he was offended and hurt by the actions of the Reds this offseason. He was on record stating that now more than ever he understands that
professional baseball is a business. Will he use the transgressions he felt he suffered as motivation to reignite his game in 2014? I personally feel he will have a better season than he did in 2013, but not significantly. I think we can expect to see a rise in OBP and a reduction in strikeouts because he won't be asked to switch roles on offense. I also expect that he will be making the spectacular defensive plays he's known for while reducing his errors at the same time.

2014 Prediction - .269 AVG, .325 OBP, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 23 2B, 10 SB

3B - Todd Frazier (R)

2013 Stats- .234 AVG, .314 OBP, 19 HR, 73 RBI, 29 2B, 3 3B, 6 SB

2013 Recap:
FlavaFraz was productive once again from an offensive standpoint, albeit with some glaring deficiencies. SuperTodd was quite streaky with the bat in hand in 2013, but he still showed lots of promise. His biggest weakness in his sophomore season was certainly his strikeouts and plate discipline. His OBP decreased from .331 to .314 and his SLG also dropped considerably. On the positive side, Frazier showed such improved glovework at third-base that his predecessor/mentor Scotty Rolen must feel proud. In some cases, Todd's web-gems were so spectacular that it would make you think Brett Lawrie was manning the hot corner in Cincy, and not a 6'3" 220 pound fellow like Frazier.

2014 Outlook:
In 2014, I am expecting Frazier to raise his batting average and his home run and doubles totals. Although he is currently slated to bat 6th, I could easily see him batting 5th in front Ludwick if/when the opportunity presents itself. This means I expect he could also bat 4th on the days when the Reds are facing a lefty starter. Defensively, I feel quite safe with Zack and Todd getting the everyday play on the left-side of the infield. Offensively, I think Todd will manage to increase a few of his numbers across the board, especially if the guys in front of him are getting on base at a decent clip.

2014 Prediction - .255 AVG, .325 OBP, 22 HR, 70 RBI, 27 2B

SS - Zack Cozart (R)

2013 Stats- .254 AVG, .284 OBP, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 30 2B, 3 3B, 0 SB

2013 Recap:
Cozart was once again a defensive pleasure and an offensive liability for most of the 2013season. Zack now has two complete MLB seasons under his belt and two things have remained constant: he plays great defense, but he doesn't get on base. Some of this, I feel can be downplayed, as he was moved up an down Dusty Baker's lineup cards so many times it surely became difficult adjusting to any specific roles, especially when just hitting for average was already quite the task. Cozy saw significant time in the two-hole spot in his first full season batting in the pre-Choo leadoff days in Cincinnati. Although he always had Votto batting behind him for solid protection, there was that pressure for Zack to make something happen, and typically with one out (or more, depending on the inning), which often did not pan out. We saw a lot of shifting around of the lineup from Dusty due to the injury of Joey in 2012, which led to Cozart batting in many different spots: leadoff, two-hole, sixth, seventh, and eighth. Baker was typically keen with what to do his slumping players, but injuries and an overall lack of offensive team production probably led to Zack's constant movement within the order and his overall inconsistency at the plate. In 2013, Zack moved around the order a bit as well, just not nearly as much because of the mainstays we had at the top of the Reds' batting order. Cozart saw his strikeout numbers reduce and his batting average increase slightly while mainly batting 2nd/7th in the lineup. However, his home runs, doubles and OBP all had very slight decreases while his RBI total went up significantly.

2014 Outlook:

2014 ought to be a better year for 28-year-old Cozart. In fact, I expect this will be the best campaign he has had yet as a pro. Cozy batted .236 before the All-Star Break and .282 after in the 2013 season. He attributed his late success to an alteration in his approach. If Zack heads into 2014 the way he ended 2013, now in the midst of his "prime years," I feel he will make a difference for this team on the offensive side of the field. And with Bryan Price at the helm, I expect to see more running from this ballclub, including Zack, who was once a notable runner as a prospect but has only stolen a total of four bases in 300 Major League games. The biggest hurdle may be for Zack to finally break over that .300 OBP hump which he has yet to do in his first two full seasons. With some confidence going into 2014 from where he left off, some stability within the order, and some luck in the BABIP department, I feel this can be Cozy's first real productive season from both sides of the field.

2014 Prediction - .260 AVG, .305 OBP, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 25 2B, 10 SB

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Starting Over: Where Do We Go From Here?

By Ryan Bramwell

The 2013 baseball season is over. Well, at least for our Redlegs it is. September started with a bang and the boys got hot. They took three of four from the Cardinals in St. Louis and then swept the mighty Dodgers in Cincy immediately afterward. Billy Hamilton was called up to the majors and the sense of impending excitement could be cut with a knife.

Excitement about foot speed. Not pitch speed, not home run power. Excitement about watching a player run the bases. Like most other fans of this great sport, I had forgotten how much more exciting the game can be to watch when you factor in this important yet fundamental element. Especially when your team runs as poorly and as little as the Reds do; then suddenly, you have Billy "The Bolt" Hamilton. It is truly something to see...just so long as you don't blink, or else you may not get to see it. All in all, in just thirteen games played, Hamilton would steal 13 bases in 14 attempts while posting a .429 OBP.

Ahem. Moving on. Despite the big start to September and the huge series wins against big-time opponents like the Cards and Dodgers, the Reds began cool off. Then, rather than the wheels falling off themselves, the Reds dismantled the entire team vehicle using bats, balls, gloves, bonehead plays on both ends of the field, mismanagement, and in the end, what just seemed like self-loathing deterioration. The Redlegs were 14-7 in September before losing the final two games at home to the lowly Mets. 14-9. Then, still at home, they were swept by the Pirates in the most important series of the 2013 season. 14-12 in the month of September. One game Wild Card playoff to determine who goes on to the NL Division Series. Home field advantage goes to Pittsburgh. PNC Park is absoutely rocking, and it should be. Latos is injured. Cueto gets the start over Mike Leake. Johnny gets shelled early and the Pirate crowd goes crazy. Liriano shuts down the already-turned-off Reds offense. Pirates win, Reds go home. Simple as that.

Now, let's go back. During that time when the I mentioned the Reds were cooling off. They were getting complacent, in other words. After fighting so hard to win six out of seven games against division leading teams back-to-back, they then went on to lose four out of six to the Cubs and the Brewers. That hurt us. However, they were lucky enough to play the Astros before season's end and pick up three more victories there. Next, the Reds would continue to impress by stealing two of three from the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Full steam ahead. Series win in the opener against the Mets. Then...no more steam. None. That win against the Mets was the 90th of the season, and it was the last. The Redlegs would "play" five more regular season games and not win a single one of them. When everything was on the line. They would have one last shot at redemption in the single-elimination playoff game, but you could almost sense it was too late. There was no sense of urgency on or within this team for quite some time. This issue had been talked about ad nauseum on local radio shows and other areas in the media. Dusty Baker's lack of a sense of urgency.

Dusty Baker. As of Friday, he has been removed of his position as manager of the Reds. Walt Jocketty has fired Dusty Baker after six seasons at the helm. Baker had just signed a two-year extension at the end of the 2012 season, meaning he had another year left on his current contract with the Reds. This didn't matter. It doesn't matter. Owner Bob Castellini has seen enough. General Manager Walt Jocketty has seen enough.

From what most of us know, have seen, read or heard, Dusty Baker is a great guy. He is a solid manager with a specific style mainly using an "old-school" approach to back his reasonings. Unfortunately, this style is not getting it done for the Reds players. Most of the talent on this team is now in their prime. Dusty was there to groom them as they came up and got adjusted to life in the big league. They needed that. A guy who had been in their shoes before. This guy, Dusty, speaks fluent Spanish, is super-cultured, well-read, a blues music enthusiast, treats you like a son, treats you like a teammate, gives you nothing but consistent faith and belief. Dusty. A "Player's Manager". Someone who has done what you are doing and has gone what you are going through. What an amazingly, comfortable start to the inside world of professional baseball it must have been for some guys like Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and others. Brandon Phillips seemingly had a father-son relationship with Baker over the last several years. But therein lies the problem. Phillips, Bruce, and all the talent...they are getting older. They aren't learning from Dusty anymore. They are playing for him. And his game-calling just isn't that good. His line-up cards are not good. His archaic use of the bullpen and other positions within the game are just mind-numbingly aggravating. But you love him, at least I tell myself I do, because you know the players love him. I tell myself, in what have become my very own antiquated phrases, that the players are happy playing under Dusty. So, surely they will play better. Well, I know this really isn't the case, and so does every single other person out there who watches or plays the game. Players need to be held accountable for their mistakes. They need to be challenged. They need to be treated like the adults they are. They need to be utilized like the paid employees they are. Dusty is fun. Baseball is fun. Losing in the playoffs year after year because of the same mistakes is not fun.

At some point in time, we need to realize that Dusty Baker is a tremendous manager for the youngsters in the game. For those who are making that transition. Maybe it's Dusty, mostly who needs to realize this. He has had all the talent in the world, and he has had it several times. How many times can we say that his teams have failed? How many times can we say that he's been unlucky? To be honest, I haven't heard anyone say that last sentence.

He had the Giants in 2002, loaded with talent at the peak of their prime. And he possessed on his roster quite possibly the greatest baseball player to ever play the game. Barry Bonds, his .370 batting average, his .582 on-base percentage, 46 home runs, 68 intentional walks, 1.381 OPS, were numbers that will never be able to be looked at without reading over a second-time and asking oneself if they were possible. Jeff Kent was a monster at second base and at the plate. Benito Santiago behind the plate. My man, Reggie Sanders, was still giving it all he had. On the mound, Russ Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Jason Schmidt and Kirk Reuter set the stage. The Giants had the championship in their grasp and they let it slip away to the Angels. It was the closest both Bonds and Baker would ever come to a World Series.

Then, there was the Cubs in 2003. Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou leading the team offensively while their number two and three pitchers were possibly the best two-pitcher combo in all of baseball. That combo of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood combined for 32 wins and 511 strikeouts. Dusty's old-school, faith-driven mentality also allowed rookies Wood and Prior to throw 122 and 126 pitches per start respectively. What happened in the 2003 NLCS was just terrible. First, let's get it out of the way: there was Steve Bartman...and that horrendous inning that seemed to go on forever after Stevie went after that ball. Next, let us not forget, Dusty did his part in that series too: Allowing Wood to stay in and pitch in the decisive Game 7 after giving up seven runs? What?

And now we move on to Dusty and his years with my Reds. 2010 - We made it! I had to wait 15 years to see the Reds get back to the post-season. I was eleven when this happened the last time. This time around, I was 26. Yeesh. However, in a flash, it was over. The mighty Phillies swept the Redlegs in humilating fashion including a Roy Halladay No-Hitter. This team was young and inexperienced. They weren't ready, and I cannot blame Dusty for anything here. I was just so happy they made it. 2012 - With a chip on their collective shoulders, the Reds end the regular season with 97 wins and head to San Francisco where they take the first two games over the Giants on the road despite losing their ace, Johnny Cueto, to injury in the first inning. They head back to Cincy needing to win only one game to move on to the NLCS for the first time since 1995. They can't do it. The Reds lose three consecutive games and go home once again with that bitter taste of defeat and unfinished business. 2013 - Reds win 90 games for third time in four seasons. The Reds then commence to lose the final six games of the year, including the one-game NL Wild Card playoff against the Pirates. Dusty Baker is fired. See above for more details.

So, back to the original topic: Where do we go from here?

Who do the Reds hire as their new manager for 2014 (and beyond)?

Do they hire from within the organization?

Bryan Price
Jim Riggleman
Chris Speier
Joe Morgan

Do they look elsewhere for the perfect fit for their new skipper?

Davey Johnson
Brad Ausmus
Barry Larkin
Joe Girardi
Eduardo Perez
David Bell
Jose Oquendo
A.J. Hinch
Dave Martinez
Torey Lovullo
Tim Wallach
Lloyd McClendon

What other Reds coaches jobs' are in jeopardy after this season?

Brook Jacoby?
Mark Berry?
Billy Hatcher?

If Bob Castellini is as serious as he really seems to be, what moves can we expect will be made in the offseason in regard to player personnel?

Would he be willing to trade:

Brandon Phillips?
Homer Bailey?
Mat Latos?
More of the farm system?

Will the Reds make new deals with the following players:

Bronson Arroyo?
Shin-Soo Choo?
Ryan Ludwick?

Will the Reds work out new extensions for the following players:

Mat Latos?
Homer Bailey?

As I read through posts about offseason reconstruction on Redlegnation.com, I found one that I think is super savvy and incredibly plausible:

Drew Mac

10/5/2013 at 12:29 pm

1. Hire a manager, but more importantly than that, ensure that all of the things that we now know with regard to analytics will be seen on the field. This includes defensive positioning, lineup construction, platoon realities, pitch selection, etc. If this means that a “new school” guy is hired, then that is fine. If it means that an “old school” guy is hired but, prior to hiring, he agrees to (a la Hurdle) to fully embrace the numbers. Bryan Price may be the right guy. However, I would prefer to lock him up in his present position (and perhaps pay a premium to do so) and give him full dominion over pitching. It would not bother me if he had a longer contract than the manager of the team.

2. Trade Chapman to the Yankees for Brett Gardner and a solid prospect. A Gardner/Hamilton/Ludwick CF/LF split in the outfield would likely leave the team with better overall production next year than it had out of these same two positions. Gardner could play LF against RHP (with BHam in CF). Ludwick could play LF against LHP with either Gardner and BHam in CF. Plus, this means that Ludwick would be able to PH in the later innings if a LHP is brought in. Gardner is going to be a free agent after next year, so he is essentially Choo-lite (this also means that the Reds are more likely to get a solid prospect in addition to Gardner). Offer him a qualifying offer after the season and gladly take the draft pick. Ludwick is off the books after ’14 as well. So, at that point, it’s tabula rasa in LF.

3. Thank Choo for his service and take the draft pick. It is time to restock the farm.

4. Sign Michael Young. Plan on Michael Young getting 500 plate appearances. Spot him at 3b, SS, 2b, and (rarely) at 1b (Joey should take a day off from time to time, as should BP). He will help to fill the “Rolen void” that was apparently missing this year. Also, I guess Jack Hannahan will make a million bucks to play at Louisville next year.

5. Totally abandon the role of closer. Sign a few injury/rehab projects (like Grilli and Gregg and Nathan and like happens every year) that could potentially be solid additions. Otherwise, move forward with Hoover, LeCure, Parra (I believe he is a FA, so don’t overpay), Marshall, Broxton, Simon, etc. and a manager who understands that an out is an out is an out.

6. Hand the starting catching job to Mesoraco. There will be no more “personal catcher” situations. If your name is Greg Maddux, you get a personal catcher. If not, throw the dang ball and shut up. After ’14, there will be some degree of finality regarding the catching situation either way. Hanigan will be gone after ’14, so reevaluate after the season.

7. I’m torn when it comes to the rotation. Of course, I would still consider handing the ball to Chapman, but I am afraid that that ship may have sailed. Also, the possibility of getting a Choo replacement and a prospect is too good to pass up at this point. As for Latos, approach him with a team friendly deal and see if he will bite. The same is true, to a lesser extent (the deal would have to be more team friendly), with Bailey. If Bailey doesn’t bite, explore a trade with someone, perhaps Texas. Try to get a two solid prospects out of Bailey. If he doesn’t warrant two prospects, then give him qualifying offer after the year and take the draft pick. So, next year’s rotation would look like Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Cingrani, and Leake. If Bailey is dealt, then give Bronson a qualifying offer. If he takes it, fine. If not, take the draft pick and find a stop gap.

To me, none of this seems too much to ask. And with a new manager running the game, any and all things are possible.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

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