The Chapman Debate Has Become a Downright Debacle (Updated With Final Decision)
By Ryan Bramwell
OK, have you followed the stories regarding Aroldis Chapman and the Reds' intent to mold him into a starter since day one of his signing back in January of 2010? Three years later, the same stories are being told to the Cincinnati faithful and the op-ed articles are still be written. When reading these pieces from the Reds' beat-writers, bloggers, and so forth, you come to the conclusion that the fan base is split on its desired role for the Cuban flamethrower.
To start or close, that is the question. 170-plus innings per year or 70-plus innings per year. Be the lethal, tone-setting enforcer or the mind-blowing, intimidating shutdown artist. In a perfect world, be Randy Johnson, or be Mariano Rivera.
The offer is on the table for both positions. These options are not completely foreign for the 25-year-old Cuban either. Aroldis was a starter in his native Cuba before defecting to America and leaving everything and everyone he knew behind. In fact, Chapman was the starting pitcher for the Cubans in the 2010 World Baseball Classic. When joining the Reds, the belief was that he was too raw to immediately join the rotation. A plan was implemented to ease him into the role in the offseason after his first full year in the bigs in 2011. Fast-forward to the spring of 2012 and the Reds followed up on this objective and had Chapman pitching out of the rotation and/or logging starter-type innings in spring training. And he was good. In fact, one might argue that he was the best-looking starter for the Reds that spring. However, Ryan Madson, a closer and premium free-agent signing from that winter, needed surgery and would miss the entire 2012 season, essentially meaning the Reds just threw a wad of cash into the Ohio River. Madson was a proven and prized closer who the Reds paid $8.5 million over the course of one season in which he never officially donned a Reds uniform. This injury would cause a trickle-down effect that left the Reds with a handcuffed decision of keeping Aroldis in the pen. This was the correct decision...for last season anyway.
The Madson injury forced the Reds to draw up a new bullpen scheme. Sean Marshall, who the Reds received in exchange for Travis Wood, was named as the closer to replace Madson going into the 2012 season. Marshall had always been a set-up man but could certainly pass for a closer. However, as a left-handed pitcher with a knack for sweeping curves and a variation of breaking balls, he was more closely related to your traditional set-up man, or at absolute worst, a lefty-on-lefty specialist. Marshall saw some success in the unfamiliar role early on, but after a few blown saves the heads were turning toward the Cuban Missile and his recent adrenaline-infused outings. Aroldis Chapman was moved into the 9th-inning role and Sean Marshall went back to where he fit. He has now moved from middle-relief in 2011, to closing in 2012, rapidly moving further and further away from a starting pitcher role. However, Aroldis was sensational closing out games for Cincinnati. By season's end, he had put up some of the most gaudy and ridiculous looking numbers any pitcher had ever done before. With the exception of two separate but short slumps, he was virtually unhittable and easily the most dominating pitcher in baseball. He set the Reds team record for consecutive games saved and was even being talked about as a Cy Young and MVP candidate by July and August.
With all that in mind, rationally I cannot be irritated with the organization for what they did with the pitching staff in 2012. They needed to replace outgoing, overpaid closer Francisco Cordero; they needed to then replace Cordero's replacement, Ryan Madson, by utilizing who they saw as their best guy in the bullpen in the time, Sean Marshall; Aroldis Chapman was pitching phenomenally and was viewed as the next obvious choice for the organization as the team's closer. A trickle-down effect or a one-thing-led-to-another scenario, either way it worked out. But so far we have only looked at this story from afar. We easily get caught up in the 100+ MPH fastballs and hair-raising intensity at the ballpark when Chapman is on the mound that we become infatuated with his one-inning-per-outing dominance rather than visualize the long-term possibilities of this incredibly rare talent with an abundance of uncovered and tremendous potential. The upside of Aroldis Chapman is incomparable to any pitcher in baseball. His overall worth as a starter is increased ten-fold in terms of player value, team wins and his next salary. Really think about this next hypothetical question and give me an honest answer: Would you rather have Randy Johnson or Mariano Rivera on your favorite team? Again, I am not saying that Aroldis is either of these historically great pitchers, but contextually I believe they are the perfect examples from each end of the pitching spectrum. In my opinion, since the dawn of the closer role, there has not been a more outstanding one than Rivera. And much like Chapman would do if he remained a closer for his entire career, Rivera did it all with just one pitch. Rivera used only the cutter and Aroldis would primarily throw fastballs. On the other end of the argument, Randy Johnson, a starter, was the ultra-intimidating, left-handed fireballer who had the meanest fastball and the nastiest slider in the game. Well, there is the comparison in text-form. Now let's see it in the glorious, never-fail version of numbers:
So, who would you want for your team? Johnson or Rivera? 4,000 innings or roughly 1,300? 600 saves or 300 wins? Yes, these are
extreme hypotheticals due to the career numbers these basbeall greats recorded, but it doesn't mean they aren't still useful when probing a talent like Chapman. His possibilities are limitless.
Advanced Metrics - Wins Above Replacement
Now let us take a look at last season's WAR numbers for starting pitchers and closing pitchers. Obviously the starters will have much higher WAR numbers because of the innings they get on the field, but that is one of my overall points on this matter: a starter will generate more substantial value to a team than a closer will, regardless of talent.
2012 Starter vs. Closer WAR
Now consider this: Just how important is a closing pitcher? Or at least, is it important enough to validate one specific player to come in to a game every two or three nights to close out the game? Closer-by-committee has typically been a successful route. When consistently-used relief pitching still wasn't a mainstream idea there were bullpen guys they called "firemen" who would often pitch the final two to three innings to close out the game. They weren't labeled as closers, yet they got the job done and often pitched many more innings than today's 9th-inning-specialists. And they certainly weren't revered like they are today. Nor were they paid like their modern-day counterparts. So, are the Trevor Hoffman's, Eric Gagne's and Francisco Rodriguez's worth as much to a team as the Greg Maddux's, Pedro Martinez's and Justin Verlander's? The answer is no. But they certainly are intrigal to a team's overall success. However, the big question is more about rarity. Is it harder to find a front-end starter or a back-end bullpen arm? After all, every pitcher begins his career starting games at least at some level in baseball. Brad Lidge wasn't closing games for his high school team and Dennis Eckersley certainly wasn't pitching only in save situations when his professional career began in the minors. The point here is that not all pitchers are cut out to throw the ball 100+ times every five days throughout their entire career. It is true that Aroldis Chapman might very well fall into that category of pitchers. Like other bullpen arms, that portion of his throwing days might be over, and it may be time to realize that his only success will come from throwing in the ninth inning a few times per week.
...I was going to add
much more to this, however the season has begun and I have to get down to business.
