Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Reds: It's a Done Deal!

Reds Participate in One of Offseason's Biggest Trades so Far; Acquire Shin-Soo Choo


By Ryan Bramwell

It is official. 

The Cincinnati Reds now have their leadoff hitter and their center fielder, and they obtain both from just one ballplayer: Shin-Soo Choo.  The Reds also received 28-year-old utility infielder Jason Donald in the deal.  Donald may prove to be an important bench piece now that Miguel Cairo and Willy Taveras are gone. 

How was it done?

The trade winded up involving three teams and is actually being called a "blockbuster" over at ESPN.com.  The Reds, Indians and Diamondbacks all got something needed in this three-way transaction.

  • Reds receive:
    • Shin-Soo Choo (CF/OF), Jason Donald (IF), and cold, hard Cash (est. $3.5M)
  • Indians receive:
    • Trevor Bauer (RHP, top prospect), Drew Stubbs (CF), Matt Albers (RHP), Brian Shaw(RHP)
  • Diamondbacks receive:
    • Tony Sipp (LHP), Lars Anderson (1B), Didi Gregorious (SS)

So, the Reds have their leadoff hitter and they have parted ways with Drew Stubbs.  They also have a backup infielder, which they needed.  ALSO, they have an extra $3.5 million to spend!  And that is just splendid seeing as the Reds still need some major bench help.  Let's spend it wisely, shall we?


Grading Walt Jocketty's move

A- 

          +/- Prospects: Really hurts to lose Gregorious in my opinion.  But in Cozart we trust, right?
          +   Team needs: Adding Choo and taking care of two major necessities is a huge deal.
          -    Control time: Stubbs is under contract until 2016; Choo will be a FA at season's end.
          +   We got a decent utility infielder in Jason Donald; we really needed the bench help.
          +   We received a lot of money in the deal that we can use to significantly improve this team.
          +   I am happy, therefore you should be too.



Link

ESPN Story




Reds Trading for Shin-Soo Choo?

All-Ohio Trade in the Works; Best Possible Deal For Both Teams


By Ryan Bramwell

Reports are surfacing today that the Reds and Indians are "deep in talks" regarding a trade that would send Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious to Cleveland in exchange for Shin-Soo Choo and possibly a player to be named later. 

In my opinion, of all the names and deals that have been thrown out there the past couple of weeks, this one is the best for Cincinnati.  Let's take a look and see exactly why:

Drew Stubbs


The Bad
  • Declining the past couple of seasons (Drops in Avg, OPB, SLG, OPS)
  • Striking out consistently (Last 3 seasons: 168, 205, 166)
  • Not reaching base (Last 3 Seasons: OBP .329, .321, .277)
The Good
  • Young (time to fix his mistakes and reroute his current path)
  • Under team control (is signed at reasonable price until 2016)
  • Plus fielder (can cover a lot of ground in any ballpark)

Shin-Soo Choo


The Good
  • Gets on base (Career OBP of .381; : 394, .401, .373)
  • Knows how to leadoff; Has patience (Last 3 Full Seasons: 78 BB, 83 BB, 73 BB)
  • Can steal bases on occasion (Last 3 Full Seasons: 21 SB, 22 SB, 21 SB)
  • Can slug a bit too (Last 3 Full Seasons: 38 2B/20 HR, 31 2B/ 22 HR, 43 2B/16 HR)
  • Bill James like him (Last 3 Full Seasons: Offensive WAR; 5.0, 5.1, 4.5) 
The Bad
  • Isn't quite the defender Stubbs is (Last 3 Full Seasons: Defensive WAR; -0.5, -0.1, -1.5)
  • Under control for just one season (Free agent at end of 2013; has Scott Boras as an agent)
  • We lose Gregorious in the deal (Saddest part of deal; Didi will really be something)
*Last full three seasons: 2009, 2010, 2012



Compared to the other trade talks the Reds were said to have been in?
-We didn't lose a single pitcher.  Homer Bailey is still locked in.  Mike Leake will still be the 6th starter when necessary.  And Robert Stephenson, Tony Cingrani and company are still prospects in the Reds organization.
-We didn't lose Mesoraco.  One of the latest rumors had the Reds sending Mezzi to Tampa Bay in a three-way deal that would have brough Dexter Fowler to Cincinnati.  Losing Mesoraco would have hurt substantially due to the lack of MLB-ready catchers in our system.
-We only lost one prospect. 
-We parted ways with Drew Stubbs.

*Also, for the Indians, they get the shortstop they wanted so they can trade Asdrubal Cabrera. 

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Reds: Another Way to Obtain Fowler?

ESPN Writer Brings Up Possibility of 3-Team Trade


By Ryan Bramwell

Jason Churchill wrote last night that the Rays, Reds and Rockies could all help each other out via a mutual three-team trade. 

Here is the breakdown:
1. Tampa Bay is looking for catching help.
2. Colorado is seeking pitching help.
3. Cincinnati is looking for a center-fielder/leadoff hitter.

Here is the proposed idea:
1. Tampa Bay receives catcher Devin Mesoraco from the Reds
2. Colorado obtains either pitcher James Shields or Jeremy Hellickson from the Rays.
3. Cincinnati gets centerfielder Dexter Fowler from the Rockies.

My only issue with this theoretical deal?
REDS CATCHING - Obviously, this is the area of concern. 
  • Ryan Hanigan is one of my favorite Redlegs and for good reason.  Hanigan is a heck of a defensive catcher and one of the absolute best game-callers in the league.  Therefore, he throws guys out, blocks the plate well, and knows his rotation so definitively that they rarely need to think for themselves when it comes to choosing pitches.  Moreover, offensively Hanigan is no slouch either.  He rarely strikes out and hits for average very well for a catcher.  Hanigan is extremely underrated, and, although it is unjust, I like it that way. 
  • The Reds have a shortage of catchers at the moment.  Grandal was traded for Mat Latos before the 2012 season.  Dioner Navarro signed with the Cubs this offseason.  Lastly, Corky Miller is older than dirt, albeit fun to look at still.
  • Long-term-wise, the Reds have Indiana prospect Tucker Barnhart.  Barnhart split time between Single-A and Double-A ball last season and is expected to be a shoo-in as a major league catcher in the not-so-distant future.  Scouts say the Tucker is a patient hitter that draws many walks at the plate and defensively he has a great arm.  Here is his MILB page.
  • All this means that really, the Reds only have one MLB catcher and no one in the wings if they trade away the 24-year-old Mesoraco.  And remember, we don't have much cash to throw around at various free agents either.  This rumor might just have to go by the wayside for now.

Links to this trade rumor:
ESPN Insider
MLBTradeRumors.com






Friday, December 7, 2012

Reds: Interesting Developments

Fowler and Bourn Still in the Mix for the Reds


By Ryan Bramwell

Dexter Fowler
According to several reports released today, the Rockies and the Reds are still discussing a trade involving Dexter Fowler.  Apparently the Rockies brass is looking for Mike Leake and two prospects in exchange for the switch-hitting center fielder.  Some beleive that the Reds may deal Leake and Drew Stubbs rather than prospects.  Leake and Fowler both are coming up on arbitration years and neither will be a free agent until after the 2015 season. 

Here is some proof to this story:
CBS Sports
SB Nation
MLB Trade Rumors


Michael Bourn
A few new stories across the internet say that Michael Bourn and the Reds are good match for each other now that the market has dwindled.  With Upton, Victorino, Span, Revere, and Pagan all obtaining deals or being traded, Bourn is one of the last big name outfielders on the market.  According to Jason Churchill only three teams have a chance at Bourn and they are the Mariners, Rangers and Reds.  He goes on to state that the Mariners have bigger concerns and holes to fill than an outfield position and that the Rangers are strongly focused on Josh Hamilton leaving the Reds as the most logical choice.  Unlike Fowler, Bourn is a free agent (represented by Scott Boras) and would make $8-10 million in a one-year deal.

Here are some articles:
Bleacher Report
ESPN


Candidate Comparison

Dexter Fowler in 2012
.300 BA, 13 HR, 53 RBI, .389 OBP, 11 3B, 12 SB

Michael Bourn in 2012
.274 BA, 9 HR, 57 RBI, .348 OBP, 10 3B, 42 SB



Let us not forget...

Ryan Ludwick
Ludwick has an offer on the table from Jocketty and company but has yet to sign anything.  Sources say that Ludwick is mulling things over at the moment.  Best guesses say that the deal Ludwick has been offered is for two years and probably around $6 million.  It's true that Ludwick might get a three year deal somewhere else or even a two year deal with better money, but it's unlikely he would stray from Reds Country for a minimal difference in price.


Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Reds: Jacoby Ellsbury, Anyone?

Latest Rumors Uncover Tantalizing Opportunity (If the Price is Right)

By Ryan Bramwell

Jacoby Ellsbury

Boston Red Sox
Center Field
5 yrs Experience - 29 yrs old
Bats: L/Throws: L

Positives:
+Rarely strikes out
+Steals a ton of bases
+Tremendous fielder
+MVP-Caliber when healthy (i.e. 2011 season)

Negatives:
-Has been injury prone
-Doesn't take many walks
-Could be costly for a one-year rental

Best season: 2011
AVG .321        R: 119        HR: 32
OBP: .376        H: 212        RBI: 105
SLG: .552        2B: 46         SB: 39
OPS: .928        3B: 5           SO/BB: 98/52


What's He Going to Cost us?
-Pitching (either prospects and/or a back-end starter)
-Possibly a position player (Stubbs, Cozart/Gregorious, or prospect)


Links:
+ESPN - Hot Button: Trade Him vs. Keep Him
+ESPN - Trade Fits For Ellsbury
+Cincinnati.com - Could Reds Trade For Ellsbury
+Bleacher Report - Ellsbury Trade Rumors; 3 Teams




Saturday, December 1, 2012

Cincinnati Reds: A Closer Look at our Targets














By Ryan Bramwell


What Would You be Willing to Give Up for One of These Guys?

Available Via Trade

Alex Gordon














LF/3B/1B - Kansas City Royals
Bats: L/Throws: R
2013 Age: 29 years
Contract: $37.5M (2012-2015, '16 Team Option)
2013 Salary: $9M
       
           2011     2012  
AVG: .303      .294
OBP:  .376      .368 
SLG:  .502      .455
OPS:  .879      .822
2Bs:    45         51

What it would take to land Gordon according to RijoSaboCaseyWKRP at RedReporter:
-Homer Bailey
-Tony Cingrani
-Robert Stephenson


Justin Upton














RF/OF - Arizona Diamondbacks
Bats:R/Throws: R
2013 Age: 25 years
Contract: $50M (2010-2015)
2013 Salary: $9.75M

            2011    2012
AVG:  .289     .280 
OBP:   .369     .355
SLG:   .529     .480
OPS:   .898     .785
HRs:    31        17

What it would take to land Upton according to RijoSaboCaseyWKRP at RedReporter:
-Didi Gregorious
-Daniel Corcino
-Tony Cingrani


Dexter Fowler


 
CF - Colorado Rockies
Bats: S/Throws: R
2013 Age: 27 years
Contract: 2012 - $2.35M
2013 Salary: 2nd year Arbitration Eligible (Super 2)

             2011     2012
AVG:   .266      .300
OBP:    .363      .389
SLG:    .432      .474
OPS:    .796      .863
3Bs:      15         11 

What it would take to land Fowler according to RijoSaboCaseyWKRP at RedReporter:
-Drew Stubbs
-Daniel Corcino
-Tony Cingrani


Shin-Soo Choo














RF/OF - Cleveland Indians
Bats: L/Throws: L
2013 Age: 30 years
Contract: 2012 - $4.9M
2013 Salary: 3rd year Arbitration Eligible

            2010*   2012  (2011/85 Games)
AVG:  .300      .283         
OBP:   .401      .373      
SLG:   .484      .441          
OPS:   .885      .815
HRs:    22         16                
SBs:     22        21

What it would take to land the Choo-Choo Train according to RijoSaboCaseyWKRP at RedReporter:
-Mike Leake
-Daniel Corcino
-Tony Cingrani


Gerardo Parra




















OF - Arizona Diamondbacks
Bats: L/Throws: L
2013 Age: 26 years
Contract: 2012 - $502K
2013 Salary: Arbitration Eligible

            2011    2012
AVG:  .292     .273
OBP:   .357     .335
SLG:   .427     .392
OPS:   .784     .727

What it would take to land Parra according to RijoSaboCaseyWKRP at RedReporter:
-Chris Heisey
-Didi Gregorious
-Ismael Gullion


Or We Could Spend Some Scratch in Free Agency...

Available Via Free Agency

Angel Pagan
















OF - San Francisco Giants
2013 Age: 31 years
Bats: S/Throws: R
Contract: 2012 - $4.85M
2013 Salary: Free Agent

           2011   2012
AVG: .262    .288     
OBP:  .322    .338
SLG:  .372    .440
OPS:  .694    .778
SBs:    32       29


Shane Victorino
















CF/OF - Los Angeles Dodgers
2013 Age: 32 years
Bats: S/Throws: R
Contract: 2012 - $9.5M
2013 Salary: Free Agent

           2011   2012
AVG: .279    .255
OBP:  .355    .321
SLG:  .491    .383
OPS:  .847    .704
SBs:    19       39


Michael Bourn



















CF - Atlanta Braves
2013 Age: 30 years
Bats: L/Throws: R
Contract: 2012 - $6.84M
2013 Salary: Free Agent

            2011   2012
AVG:  .294    .274
OBP:  .349    .348
SLG:  .386    .391
OPS:  .734    .739
SBs:    61       42


Cody Ross
















OF - Boston Red Sox
2013 Age: 32 years
Bats: R/Throws: L
Contract: 2012 - $3M
2013 Salary: Free Agent

           2011    2012
AVG: .240    .267
OBP:  .325    .326
SLG:  .405    .481
OPS:  .730    .807
2Bs:    25       34


Who are the Reds Prospects Listed Above that Could be Used to Complete a Deal?

Robert Stephenson - Ranked #2 in Reds organization - RHP/19 yrs
     -Reds Minor Leagues
     -Minor League Baseball

Daniel Corcino - Ranked #3 in Reds organization - RHP/21 yrs
     -Reds Minor Leagues
     -Minor League Baseball

Tony Cingrani - Ranked #6 in Reds organization - LHP/23 yrs
      -Reds Minor Leagues
      -Minor League Baseball 
      -Major League Baseball

Didi Gregorious - Ranked #7 in Reds organization - SS/22 yrs
      -Reds Minor Leagues
      -Minor League Baseball
      -Major League Baseball

Ismael Guillon - Ranked #14 in Reds organization - LHP/20 yrs
      -Reds Minor Leagues
      -Minor League Baseball